User talk:Leopoldo Martin R

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Welcome to Wikimedia Commons, Leopoldo Martin R!
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-- Wikimedia Commons Welcome (talk) 17:15, 8 April 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Numbers for your Ebola outbreak rate appear incorrect[edit]

By my reasoning - the right hand point on your plot for the cases per day should be above 20, about 23 in fact. I'm not sure how you're calculating this, but it seems incorrect to me. It's also likely that the death rate is too low as well. There were 161 newly reported cases in the week up to July 2. That's over 20 cases per day. The week before showed around 80 new cases - over 10 per day. --Aflafla1 (talk) 22:24, 5 July 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Just to keep you up to date: they brought out new figures today: http://www.who.int/entity/csr/disease/ebola/5-september-2014-en.pdf?ua=1 Semiliki (talk) 20:29, 5 September 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Thank you[edit]

Thank you for making the Ebola charts. I encourage you to continue as I think many millions of people will be turning to the various language versions of Wikipedia in the coming weeks and months for just this kind of information.--Jimbo Wales (talk) 20:33, 31 July 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Suggestions[edit]

First, I thank for your effort providing us this material piece of visualization. Now, as you obviously already have the data available in a table, I'd like to encourage you to get even more out of it for us. Each type of chart you've provided has its own point, so I'd prefer seeing several different visualisations out of the data each time not just one. Even though the lines through actual realized points are "real", such a line cannot be much used for creating forecasts in the same way as fitted funktions can be. And it really is the future we are most interested here.

Therefore I suggest, that you provide us all following charts:

  1. 1 Realized data lines (cases/deaths)
  2. 2 Logarithmic chart & fit for estimation of growth rates
  3. 3 Polynomial fit (with actual data points) + extrapolation (say, 6-12 mths ahead)
  4. 4 Logarithmic extrapolation using growth estimates from #2.
  1. 3 & #4 should preferably be presented in the same chart. The numeric estimates of growth rates acquired in #2 are of most interest as such, of course.

Thanks in advance! I'd do it myself, but I'm restricted to a mobile phone atm, so it's practically impossible.

Hi and thanks for the advices! I would be glad to do this kind of work. But it seems that wikipedia dont let me publish this kind of work. In the past I kept two graphs, one of the cases vs time and its poli fit and a graph of cases/day vs time data+ derivative of the fit. But some users asked me to remove that because is original research Wikipedia:OR and it is forbiden in Wikipedia. They encourage me to plot only scatterplot, not fit, no derivative, nothing else. I can perform your suggestions easily but I do not want to fight other wikipedia users. If you still think it is suitable for Wiki, let me know and I can upload some and see what comunity say. --Leopoldo Martin R (talk) 13:53, 5 August 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Uh, I see. What a pity. Such a strict policy doesn't even allow standard curve fitting and parameter estimation as a "routine calculation" then, I guess. So sad, because it basically concerns just standard methods of visualisation of already existing information. If there's any other site where you could post this "analysis", then wikipedia could link to it and use it... Anyways, a log chart should be OK, as it definitely is routine. --MaxFun (the same as above)

Could you provide a cumulative semi-log graph by country, please? The growth rates in different countries do differ considerably from each other, so it would be an important improvement on visualization. I would also fix the axes so, that they extend somewhat into the future and upwards. That would allow anyone interested to easily make their own extrapolation directly on the graph. Some value level lines would help that, too. Thanks in advance! Max Fun (talk) 00:24, 14 September 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Awesome Graphs! Great Resource[edit]

Thanks for doing them. I'm, not sure what you're creating them with, but it would be cool if we could also get a reproductive number or epidemic prediction up there. If you're using R and are want to do some cool stuff with the data, there is a tutorial on SEIR modeling on R, with pretty much all of the code to create the graphs. I'm not really a programmer, so I don't have the necessary tools and know how to get the package to compile and run in R (tried for hours, I have never compiled anything or read source code in my life), but maybe you'd be able to if you feel like doing some analysis.

If you're not an epidemiology guy this is the SEIR model:

Decent mathematical explanation in the [Epidemic Model] article. Domdom8D (talk) 16:42, 20 August 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Thanks! Im using Mathematica (r) that is my standard battle horse for my research in applied physics, About the code in R (I heard bad things about R and how difficult is to get it working at the beggining) it should be reproducible in Mathematica but the issue is that if I do that, the comuity will claim Original Research and this is not suposed to be published in Wikipedia. The only thing we can do here with the data is +-*/ and some people complain about the cases per day calculation. I love to do this kind of things but we can not do in Wikipedia. If you want to upload it to some other place, your website or whatever, thats Ok and I can play a little bit with the code to see if I can run it in Mathematica.

Hello Leopoldo Martin[edit]

Hello Leopoldo
How many times a week do you update your graphs please?
thanks --Dernier Siècle (talk) 16:32, 9 September 2014 (UTC)[reply]

I check every day if I can. But last data of Sept 6 is problematic I dont know if delete the Sept 5 or not. I already posted about in the Talk page.--Leopoldo Martin R (talk) 17:19, 9 September 2014 (UTC)[reply]

ok
thank you, gracias --Dernier Siècle (talk) 22:15, 9 September 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Suggestion[edit]

Hi and Thanks a lot for the Charts. Would you please, if you don't mind, mark the charts with the date of the last datas?--Designtheoretiker (talk) 14:17, 25 September 2014 (UTC) Done! Thanks for your comments. --Leopoldo Martin R (talk) 10:40, 26 September 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Please check Deceased per day Ebola 2014.png[edit]

Dear Leopoldo Martin R,

please check, whether you based the last data point on 3 days. As the last WHO reports are from 25. September and 28. September 2014. With kind regards, Malanoqa --Malanoqa (talk) 21:28, 2 October 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Dear Leopoldo Martin R, it appears you had no time to check your Wikimedia talk. I therefore uploaded a corrected and actualized version of Deceased per day Ebola 2014.png. I tried to adapt your formatting, but due to the Software I use (Excel), this was not completely possible. Please feel free to check (and correct my graphs), I now how much work it is to make this and to keep them actual and correct over such a long time. Could it be, that I am the only on who saw and mentioned this tiny error?--Malanoqa (talk) 08:30, 4 October 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Thank you for correcting, Kind regards--Malanoqa (talk) 18:21, 4 October 2014 (UTC)[reply]


Hi Leopoldo Martin R sorry i might have given you extra work but i removed the 7 nov numbers and replaced with 9 Nov numbers from WHO.. greetings Brian BrianGroen

A barnstar for you![edit]

The Original Barnstar
Thank you for your work on the Ebola statistics! Raphman (talk) 19:31, 3 October 2014 (UTC)[reply]
+1 --Rainald62 (talk) 23:40, 21 February 2015 (UTC)[reply]

File:Deceased per day Ebola 2014.png[edit]

Dear Leopoldo,

may you publish your plotting script for the diagram?--Kopiersperre (talk) 21:16, 14 October 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Hi, This is the script:

Unexy[x_,y_] := Partition[Riffle[x,y],2]; dates = {{2014, 3, 25}, {2014, 3, 26}, {2014, 3, 27}, {2014, 3, 

   31}, {2014, 4, 1}, {2014, 4, 2}, {2014, 4, 7}, {2014, 4, 
   10}, {2014, 4, 17}, {2014, 4, 21}, {2014, 4, 23}, {2014, 4, 
   30}, {2014, 05, 05}, {2014, 05, 14}, {2014, 05, 23}, {2014, 05, 
   27}, {2014, 06, 2}, {2014, 06, 5}, {2014, 06, 10}, {2014, 06, 
   18}, {2014, 06, 24}, {2014, 07, 2}, {2014, 07, 8}, {2014, 7, 
   10}, {2014, 7, 15}, {2014, 7, 18}, {2014, 7, 20}, {2014, 7, 
   23}, {2014, 7, 27}, {2014, 7, 30}, {2014, 8, 1}, {2014, 8, 
   4}, {2014, 8, 6}, {2014, 8, 9}, {2014, 8, 11}, {2014, 8, 
   13}, {2014, 8, 16}, {2014, 8, 18}, {2014, 8, 20}, {2014, 8, 
   25}, {2014, 8, 31}, {2014, 9, 3}, {2014, 9, 7}, {2014, 9, 
   10}, {2014, 9, 14}, {2014, 9, 17}, {2014, 9, 21}, {2014, 9, 
   23}, {2014, 9, 25}, {2014, 9, 28}, {2014, 10, 1}, {2014, 10, 
   5}, {2014, 10, 8}};

cases = {86, 86, 103, 114, 130, 135, 163, 169, 209, 215, 220, 233, 

  243, 245, 270, 309, 354, 438, 474, 528, 599, 759, 844, 888, 964, 
  1048, 1093, 1201, 1323, 1440, 1603, 1711, 1779, 1848, 1975, 2127, 
  2240, 2473, 2615, 3071, 3707, 4001, 4366, 4846, 5339, 5762, 6263, 
  6574, 6808, 7192, 7492, 8033, 8399};

deaths = {59, 60, 66, 70, 82, 88, 102, 108, 129, 136, 143, 153, 162, 

  164, 181, 200, 208, 231, 252, 337, 338, 467, 518, 539, 603, 632, 
  660, 672, 729, 826, 887, 932, 961, 1013, 1069, 1145, 1229, 1350, 
  1427, 1553, 1808, 2089, 2177, 2375, 2586, 2746, 2900, 3043, 3159, 
  3286, 3439, 3865, 4033};

datess = Table[ 

  AbsoluteTime[datesi], {i, 1, Dimensions[dates]1}];

Fig1 = DateListPlot[{Unexy[dates, cases], Unexy[dates, deaths]}, 

 Joined -> True, 
 PlotStyle -> {Directive[Thick, Red], Directive[Black, Thick]}, 
 PlotLegends -> Placed[LineLegend[{"Cases", "Deaths"}], {0.2, Top}], 
 Frame -> True, FrameLabel -> {"Date, up to Oct/8", "Casualties"}, 
 LabelStyle -> {Medium}, ImageMargins -> 5]

Fig2 = DateListLogPlot[{Unexy[dates, cases], Unexy[dates, deaths]}, 

 Joined -> True, 
 PlotStyle -> {Directive[Thick, Red], Directive[Black, Thick]}, 
 PlotLegends -> Placed[LineLegend[{"Cases", "Deaths"}], {0.2, Top}], 
 Frame -> True, 
 FrameLabel -> {"Date, up to Oct/8", "Casualties (log scale)"}, 
 LabelStyle -> {Medium}, ImageMargins -> 5]

Fig3 = DateListPlot[{Unexy[Drop[datess, 1], 

   Differences[cases]/Differences[datess]*1.*3600*24], 
  Unexy[Drop[datess, 1], 
   Differences[deaths]/Differences[datess]*1.*3600*24]}, 
 PlotRange -> All, Frame -> True, 
 FrameLabel -> {"Date, up to Oct/8", "Casualties per day"}, 
 LabelStyle -> {Medium}, Joined -> True, 
 PlotLegends -> 
  Placed[LineLegend[{"Cases per day", "Deaths per day"}], {0.2, 
    Top}], PlotStyle -> {Directive[Thick, Red], 
   Directive[Black, Thick]}, ImageMargins -> 5]


Export["Ebola1008.png", Fig1, Background -> White, 

 ImageResolution -> 200];

Export["LogEbola1008.png", Fig2, Background -> White, 

 ImageResolution -> 200];

Export["DEbola1008.png", Fig3, Background -> White, 

 ImageResolution -> 200];

File:Deceased per day Ebola 2014.png[edit]

could you please still update this file: we still have it in the german wp [1] and want to ceep it. thanks a lot for your contrib--Designtheoretiker (talk) 07:29, 10 November 2014 (UTC) Done! Sorry for the delay, the last numbers were wrong and we got negative deriative.--Leopoldo Martin R (talk) 21:07, 10 November 2014 (UTC) Im working in a new version of the graph that is integrable. This is the prelim version:[reply]

Integrable figure of cases per day

--Leopoldo Martin R (talk) 20:18, 11 November 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Ebola Data .org[edit]

For all I know, you led this effort that resulted in the Visualizations from the Ebola data jam. But since I look at both the ones here and there, and they're similar, I wondered whether it would make technical sense to combine the efforts? Thank you (a visitor without Wikimedia Commons account) 99.154.54.110 23:04, 26 November 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Certainly it makes sense, but now Im just updating the numbers, but not changing anything else. I can join the tem for the other graphics, but Ill be updating the ones already in Wiki cause many people ask for it. How can I help/join the other team?

I don't know more than what I found on eboladata.org web site, but I think you can reach the creators by using the form at the bottom of the nucivic.com page. Thanks again! 02:36, 12 December 2014 (UTC)

Request for changing File:Diseased Ebola 2014.png to Vector Graphics[edit]

Can you please change the file to Vector Graphics? Benfxmth (talk) 20:00, 14 January 2015 (UTC) Hi I cannot change to svg because some issue about how mathematica does the svg. It doesnt display properly the image in the browser. Thats why Im using png. Sorry.--132.68.23.143 15:30, 21 January 2015 (UTC)[reply]

Please check File:Diseased Ebola 2014.png[edit]

Dear Leopoldo, Could you publish your plotting script for the diagram? Benfxmth (talk) 15:14, 21 January 2015 (UTC)[reply]

Hello This is the code that im runing in Mathematica (should be version 9 or 10, in 8 you have problems with the "PlotLegends")

Unexy[x_, y_] := Partition[Riffle[x, y], 2];

dates = {{2014, 3, 25}, {2014, 3, 26}, {2014, 3, 27}, {2014, 3, 31}, {2014, 4, 1}, {2014, 4, 2}, {2014, 4, 7}, {2014, 4, 10}, {2014, 4, 17}, {2014, 4, 21}, {2014, 4, 23}, {2014, 4, 30}, {2014, 05, 05}, {2014, 05, 14}, {2014, 05, 23}, {2014, 05, 27}, {2014, 06, 2}, {2014, 06, 5}, {2014, 06, 10}, {2014, 06, 18}, {2014, 06, 24}, {2014, 07, 2}, {2014, 07, 8}, {2014, 7, 10}, {2014, 7, 15}, {2014, 7, 18}, {2014, 7, 20}, {2014, 7, 23}, {2014, 7, 27}, {2014, 7, 30}, {2014, 8, 1}, {2014, 8, 4}, {2014, 8, 6}, {2014, 8, 9}, {2014, 8, 11}, {2014, 8, 13}, {2014, 8, 16}, {2014, 8, 18}, {2014, 8, 20}, {2014, 8, 25}, {2014, 8, 31}, {2014, 9, 3}, {2014, 9, 7}, {2014, 9, 13}, {2014, 9, 21}, {2014, 9, 23}, {2014, 9, 28}, {2014, 10, 1}, {2014, 10, 5}, {2014, 10, 7}, {2014, 10, 12}, {2014, 10, 17}, {2014, 10, 19}, {2014, 10, 24}, {2014, 10, 30}, {2014, 11, 2}, {2014, 11, 4}, {2014, 11, 9}, {2014, 11, 11}, {2014, 11, 16}, {2014, 11, 18}, {2014, 11, 23}, {2014, 11, 28}, {2014, 11, 30}, {2014, 12, 7}, {2014, 12, 9}, {2014, 12, 14}, {2014, 12, 21}, {2014, 12, 24}, {2014, 12, 28}, {2015, 1, 4}, {2015, 1, 11}};

cases = {86, 86, 103, 114, 130, 135, 163, 169, 209, 215, 220, 233, 243, 245, 270, 309, 354, 438, 474, 528, 599, 759, 844, 888, 964, 1048, 1093, 1201, 1323, 1440, 1603, 1711, 1779, 1848, 1975, 2127, 2240, 2473, 2615, 3052, 3685, 3902, 4366, 5317, 6242, 6553, 7170, 7470, 8011, 8363, 8973, 9668, 9911, 11868, 12647, 13014, 13200, 14068, 14383, 15113, 15319, 15929, 16869, 17129, 17954, 18150, 18590, 19477, 19810, 20171, 20726, 21261};

deaths = {59, 60, 66, 70, 82, 88, 102, 108, 129, 136, 143, 153, 162, 164, 181, 200, 208, 231, 252, 337, 338, 467, 518, 539, 603, 632, 660, 672, 729, 826, 887, 932, 961, 1013, 1069, 1145, 1229, 1350, 1427, 1546, 1801, 2052, 2170, 2578, 2892, 3035, 3278, 3431, 3857, 3979, 4484, 4802, 4890, 5026, 5087, 5191, 5275, 5476, 5492, 5727, 5775, 5988, 6319, 6397, 6776, 6933, 7288, 7581, 7722, 7890, 8229, 8414};

datess = Table[AbsoluteTime[datesi], {i, 1, Dimensions[dates]1}];

Fig1 = DateListPlot[{Unexy[dates, cases], Unexy[dates, deaths]}, Joined -> True, PlotStyle -> {Directive[Thick, Red], Directive[Black, Thick]}, PlotLegends -> Placed[LineLegend[{"Cases", "Deaths"}], {0.2, Top}], Frame -> True, FrameLabel -> {"Date, up to 11/Jan", "Casualties"}, LabelStyle -> {Medium}, ImageMargins -> 5]

Fig2 = DateListLogPlot[{Unexy[dates, cases], Unexy[dates, deaths]}, Joined -> True, PlotStyle -> {Directive[Thick, Red], Directive[Black, Thick]}, PlotLegends -> Placed[LineLegend[{"Cases", "Deaths"}], {0.2, Top}], Frame -> True, FrameLabel -> {"Date, up to 11/Jan", "Casualties (log scale)"}, LabelStyle -> {Medium}, ImageMargins -> 5]

Fig3 = DateListPlot[{Unexy[Drop[datess, 1], Differences[cases]/Differences[datess]*1.*3600*24], Unexy[Drop[datess, 1], Differences[deaths]/Differences[datess]*1.*3600*24]}, PlotRange -> All, Frame -> True, FrameLabel -> {"Date, up to 11/Jan", "Casualties per day"}, LabelStyle -> {Medium}, Joined -> True, PlotLegends -> Placed[LineLegend[{"Cases per day", "Deaths per day"}], {0.2, Top}], PlotStyle -> {Directive[Thick, Red], Directive[Black, Thick]}, ImageMargins -> 5]

doubledatess = Riffle[datess, datess + 1]; ratio1 = Differences[cases]/Differences[datess]*1.*3600*24; doubleratio1 = Riffle[ratio1, ratio1]; ratio2 = Differences[deaths]/Differences[datess]*1.*3600*24; doubleratio2 = Riffle[ratio2, ratio2];

Fig4 = DateListPlot[{Unexy[Drop[doubledatess, 1], doubleratio1], Unexy[Drop[doubledatess, 1], doubleratio2]}, PlotRange -> All, Frame -> True, FrameLabel -> {"Date, up to 11/Jan", "Casualties per day"}, LabelStyle -> {Medium}, Joined -> True, PlotLegends -> Placed[LineLegend[{"Cases per day", "Deaths per day"}], {0.2, Top}], PlotStyle -> {Directive[Thick, Red], Directive[Black, Thick]}, ImageMargins -> 5]


Export["Ebola0104.png", Fig1, Background -> White, ImageResolution -> 200];

Export["LogEbola0104.png", Fig2, Background -> White, ImageResolution -> 200];

Export["DEbola0104.png", Fig3, Background -> White, ImageResolution -> 200];

Export["DEintegbola0104.png", Fig4, Background -> White, ImageResolution -> 200]; --132.68.23.143 15:48, 21 January 2015 (UTC)[reply]

Ebola data source[edit]

Thanks for the work you've done on graphing the Ebola outbreak. I was just wanting to add for verification and update purposes the source of the data. Are you getting it online somewhere? Thanks again, Beland (talk) 23:43, 5 March 2015 (UTC)[reply]

Hello, Im getting the data from the english wiki page of the outbreak. I used to search for it in the CDC but later I realized that the data from the Wiki is accurate and relaiable. Best. Leo.--Leopoldo Martin R (talk) 16:57, 8 March 2015 (UTC)[reply]

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