File talk:Die Temperaturkurve der Erde (ZDF, Terra X) 720p HD 50FPS.webm
temperature development from now to 2100[edit]
According to feedback from the authors, the future temperature development refers to figure 1 from Schellnhuber, Rahmstorf, Winkelmann: Why the right climate target was agreed in Paris, Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, July 2016, p. 649f. This paper refers in explaining the figure to the AR5 IPCC synthesis report which clearly describes the development of the four RCP scenario until 2100. In the time span after 2100 RCP is not defined anymore, it is called ECP (E = extended) which is a simplified concentration pathway for the far future. Nevertheless, the worst case scenario RCP8.5 results in an estimated temperature rise of 3.7 °C until 2100. Thus, there is a caveat of using the video when looking at the time span 2020-2100. Cf. Hausfather, Peters: Emissions – the ‘business as usual’ story is misleading, nature, 2020-01-29. Figure Possible Futures. --Gunnar (talk) 14:22, 27 June 2020 (UTC)