File:The future faces of the Cuban economy (electronic resource)- a Bayesian forecast (IA thefuturefacesof1094535109).pdf

This thesis investigates the applicability and results of a Bayesian approach used to forecast the future direction of the Cuban economy. The Castro regime, bound to a stagnant political ideology, has limited the options by which to save socialism and the revolution. This study first examines the historical, political and economic contexts that define the decision environment and then proceeds to formalize hypotheses, target variables and relevant events indicative of Cuba's economic direction. The qualification of the Cuban economy as either a centrally planned economy, a mixed economy or a predominantly market economy leads to forecast scenarios that create a framework upon which to apply Bayesi techniques. The results of the Bayesian forecast and sensitivity analysis support three major conclusions: (1) Bayesian analysis is an adroit methodology by which to explicitly determine the probabilities of Cuba's economic direction; (2) Cuba's economic direction given recent efforts and initiatives favors either a mixed or market economy; and (3) in contrast to the resurrection of the institutions of the Cuban revolution, the advancement of Cuba's economic recovery will warrant a predominantly market economy. (AN)