File:SARS-CoV-2 virulence evolution scenarios.pdf

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SARS-CoV-2 virulence evolution scenarios

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English: A) More virulent strains are always less fit, B) Virulence and transmission rate are correlated and strains are well-adapted (i.e. they sit on the trade-off curve), and C) same as B but strains are currently maladapted (far from the trade-off curve). Dashed blue lines show hypothetical transmission-virulence relationships, shaded blue areas the inaccessible state space, and black dots the trait combinations maximising invasion fitness in a naive population (R0). Dashed arrows show potential evolutionary trajectories. Virulence and transmission rates are in arbitrary units. The virulence and transmission rate of the beta and gamma variants are currently largely unknown. For the gamma variant, the transmission rate appears to be higher (Buss et al. 2021). Viruses can emerge anywhere in the white area, even if they cause virulent and poorly transmissible infections as B.1.616 (Fillatre et al. 2021).
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Author Samuel ALIZON
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Date/TimeThumbnailDimensionsUserComment
current21:05, 7 June 2021Thumbnail for version as of 21:05, 7 June 20211,104 × 370 (94 KB)MTSofonea (talk | contribs)Added B.1.616 variant
23:32, 6 June 2021Thumbnail for version as of 23:32, 6 June 20211,131 × 333 (91 KB)MTSofonea (talk | contribs)Uploaded own work with UploadWizard

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