File:PREDICTING THE SPREAD OF TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS USING GRAPHS (IA predictingthespr1094559610).pdf
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PREDICTING THE SPREAD OF TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS USING GRAPHS
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| Author |
Vanderzee, Anthony B. |
| Title |
PREDICTING THE SPREAD OF TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS USING GRAPHS |
| Publisher |
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School |
| Description |
The U.S. Defense and Intelligence communities expend vast amounts of resources tracking and trying to predict the geographic spread of terrorist groups such as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). Current approaches to this problem use a variety of social, demographic, and geographic data to make predictions about the spread of a terrorist organization. We demonstrate a novel approach that converts the geographic area of interest, Iraq and Syria, into a graph with the populated places as nodes and the road network as the edges of the graph. We then use this graph to compute graph-based statistics such as measures of centrality and first-order neighbor statistics on the nodes in the graph. By adding the graph-based features, we combine social, demographic, and geographic data with data that quantifies the relationships between the populated places in Iraq and Syria. This ultimately improves predictive performance for predicting future territorial gains and losses by ISIS. Furthermore, our models demonstrate that the graph-based features are the most influential variables in predicting whether or not a node will be in or out of ISIS territory. Subjects: geospatial analysis; graph analysis; network analysis; terrorism; machine learning |
| Language | English |
| Publication date | June 2018 |
| Current location |
IA Collections: navalpostgraduateschoollibrary; fedlink |
| Accession number |
predictingthespr1094559610 |
| Source | |
| Permission (Reusing this file) |
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States. |
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This work is in the public domain in the United States because it is a work prepared by an officer or employee of the United States Government as part of that person’s official duties under the terms of Title 17, Chapter 1, Section 105 of the US Code.
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| This file has been identified as being free of known restrictions under copyright law, including all related and neighboring rights. | ||
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| current | 21:30, 23 July 2020 |  | 1,275 × 1,650, 116 pages (9.8 MB) | Fæ (talk | contribs) | FEDLINK - United States Federal Collection predictingthespr1094559610 (User talk:Fæ/IA books#Fork8) (batch 1993-2020 #25059) |
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