File:MODELING SUBMARINE ANTI-SHIPPING WARFARE IN THE SOUTH AND EAST CHINA SEAS (IA modelingsubmarin1094563480).pdf
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MODELING SUBMARINE ANTI-SHIPPING WARFARE IN THE SOUTH AND EAST CHINA SEAS ( ) | ||
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Author |
McDonough, Bryan P. |
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Title |
MODELING SUBMARINE ANTI-SHIPPING WARFARE IN THE SOUTH AND EAST CHINA SEAS |
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Publisher |
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School |
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Description |
With a strong nuclear arsenal, rapidly expanding Navy, and increasing economic influence, China is quickly turning into a peer adversary that matches the United States’ military and economic strength. Strategies must be developed and analyzed that effectively curb Chinese aggression. Jeffrey E. Kline and Wayne P. Hughes, both professors at the Naval Postgraduate School and retired Navy Captains, developed the “War at Sea Strategy,” which relies heavily on U.S. submarines creating a maritime exclusion zone in the South and East China Seas. In Zachary P. Schwartz’s 2013 thesis, “Using Undersea Assets to Establish a Maritime Exclusion Zone in the South and East China Seas,” Schwartz developed the submarine anti-shipping engagement model (SASEM) to analyze the feasibility of the “War at Sea Strategy.” This thesis developed a new model to test the viability of SASEM and build upon its conclusions. The new model uses a different methodology that removes many of SASEM’s underlying assumptions and allows for more complicated modeling behaviors, such as changing submarine search and movement patterns. By comparing our results to SASEM’s, we found that the SASEM methodology was flawed and produced unreliable results. By testing various search patterns, we found that barrier search is superior when the targets move in predictable paths. Additionally, we found the difference between random and grid search to be small but statistically significant.With a strong nuclear arsenal, rapidly expanding Navy, and increasing economic influence, China is quickly turning into a peer adversary that matches the United States’ military and economic strength. Strategies must be developed and analyzed that effectively curb Chinese aggression. Jeffrey E. Kline and Wayne P. Hughes, both professors at the Naval Postgraduate School and retired Navy Captains, developed the “War at Sea Strategy,” which relies heavily on U.S. submarines creating a maritime exclusion zone in the South and East China Seas. In Zachary P. Schwartz’s 2013 thesis, “Using Undersea Assets to Establish a Maritime Exclusion Zone in the South and East China Seas,” Schwartz developed the submarine anti-shipping engagement model (SASEM) to analyze the feasibility of the “War at Sea Strategy.” This thesis developed a new model to test the viability of SASEM and build upon its conclusions. The new model uses a different methodology that removes many of SASEM’s underlying assumptions and allows for more complicated modeling behaviors, such as changing submarine search and movement patterns. By comparing our results to SASEM’s, we found that the SASEM methodology was flawed and produced unreliable results. By testing various search patterns, we found that barrier search is superior when the targets move in predictable paths. Additionally, we found the difference between random and grid search to be small but statistically significant.With a strong nuclear arsenal, rapidly expanding Navy, and increasing economic influence, China is quickly turning into a peer adversary that matches the United States’ military and economic strength. Strategies must be developed and analyzed that effectively curb Chinese aggression. Jeffrey E. Kline and Wayne P. Hughes, both professors at the Naval Postgraduate School and retired Navy Captains, developed the “War at Sea Strategy,” which relies heavily on U.S. submarines creating a maritime exclusion zone in the South and East China Seas. In Zachary P. Schwartz’s 2013 thesis, “Using Undersea Assets to Establish a Maritime Exclusion Zone in the South and East China Seas,” Schwartz developed the submarine anti-shipping engagement model (SASEM) to analyze the feasibility of the “War at Sea Strategy.” This thesis developed a new model to test the viability of SASEM and build upon its conclusions. The new model uses a different methodology that removes many of SASEM’s underlying assumptions and allows for more complicated modeling behaviors, such as changing submarine search and movement patterns. By comparing our results to SASEM’s, we found that the SASEM methodology was flawed and produced unreliable results. By testing various search patterns, we found that barrier search is superior when the targets move in predictable paths. Additionally, we found the difference between random and grid search to be small but statistically significant. Subjects: combat simulation; random search; directed search; South China Sea; East China Sea; Poisson Scan model; anti-submarine warfare |
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Language | English | |
Publication date | September 2019 | |
Current location |
IA Collections: navalpostgraduateschoollibrary; fedlink |
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Accession number |
modelingsubmarin1094563480 |
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Source | ||
Permission (Reusing this file) |
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States. |
Licensing[edit]
Public domainPublic domainfalsefalse |
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This file has been identified as being free of known restrictions under copyright law, including all related and neighboring rights. |
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Short title | MODELING SUBMARINE ANTI-SHIPPING WARFARE IN THE SOUTH AND EAST CHINA SEAS |
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Image title | |
Author | McDonough, Bryan P. |
Software used | McDonough, Bryan P. |
Conversion program | Adobe Acrobat Pro 11.0.23 |
Encrypted | no |
Page size | 612 x 792 pts (letter) |
Version of PDF format | 1.4 |