File:Accuracy of tropical cyclone induced winds using TYDET at Kadena AB (IA accuracyoftropic109452908).pdf
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Summary[edit]
Accuracy of tropical cyclone induced winds using TYDET at Kadena AB ( ) | ||
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Author |
Fenlason, Joel W. |
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Title |
Accuracy of tropical cyclone induced winds using TYDET at Kadena AB |
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Publisher |
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School |
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Description |
When a tropical cyclone (TC) is within 360 nautical miles of Kadena AB, the Air Force's Typhoon Determination (TYDET) program is used to estimate TC-induced winds expected at the base. Best-track data and Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) forecasts are used to evaluate systematic errors in TYDET. The largest contributors to errors in TYDET are a systematic error by which wind speeds are too large and the lack of size and symmetry parameters. To examine these parameters, best-track and forecasts are used to classify TCs as small or large and symmetric or asymmetric. A linear regression technique is then used to adjust TYDET forecasts based on the best-track and forecast position, size, and symmetry categories. Using independent data, over 65 percent of the overall cross-wind forecasts were improved and more than 60 percent of the cross-wind forecasts were improved when verifying conditions noted a cross-wind of 20 knots or greater. The effectiveness of the corrections and implications for TYDET forecasts are examined in relation to errors in forecast data used to initialize TYDET. A similar approach as developed here for the TYDET model at Kadena AB is proposed for other bases within the Pacific theater. Subjects: Tropical meteorology; North Pacific Ocean; Cyclone forecasting; Atmospheric physics; Cyclones; Tracking; Expert systems (Computer science) |
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Language | English | |
Publication date | March 2006 | |
Current location |
IA Collections: navalpostgraduateschoollibrary; fedlink |
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Accession number |
accuracyoftropic109452908 |
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Source | ||
Permission (Reusing this file) |
Approved for public release, distribution unlimited |
Licensing[edit]
Public domainPublic domainfalsefalse |
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This file has been identified as being free of known restrictions under copyright law, including all related and neighboring rights. |
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current | 20:44, 13 July 2020 | 1,275 × 1,650, 112 pages (3.84 MB) | Fæ (talk | contribs) | FEDLINK - United States Federal Collection accuracyoftropic109452908 (User talk:Fæ/IA books#Fork8) (batch 1993-2020 #5114) |
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Short title | Accuracy of tropical cyclone induced winds using TYDET at Kadena AB |
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Author | Fenlason, Joel W. |
Software used | Fenlason, Joel W. |
Conversion program | Acrobat Distiller 6.0.1 (Windows) |
Encrypted | no |
Page size | 612 x 792 pts (letter) |
Version of PDF format | 1.4 |