File:A complex adaptive system approach to forecasting hurricane tracks (IA acomplexdaptives109451931).pdf
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Summary[edit]
A complex adaptive system approach to forecasting hurricane tracks
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| Author |
Lear, Matthew R. |
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| Title |
A complex adaptive system approach to forecasting hurricane tracks |
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| Publisher |
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School |
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| Description |
, for the life of the storm, perform the best in terms of the distance between forecast and best-track positions. A TAF forecast is developed using a linear combination of the highest weighted predictors. When applied to the 2004 Atlantic hurricane season, the TAF system with a requirement to contain a minimum of three predictors, consistently outperformed, although not statistically significant, the CONU forecast at 72 and 96 hours for a homogeneous data set. At 120 hours, the TAF system significantly decreased the average forecast errors when compared to the CONU. The multi-agent (MAS) system approach opens the door for statistically significant forecast improvement. Subjects: Cyclones; Tropics; Hurricanes; Tracks |
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| Language | English | |
| Publication date | June 2005 | |
| Current location |
IA Collections: navalpostgraduateschoollibrary; fedlink |
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| Accession number |
acomplexdaptives109451931 |
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| Source | ||
| Permission (Reusing this file) |
Approved for public release, distribution unlimited | |
Licensing[edit]
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This work is in the public domain in the United States because it is a work prepared by an officer or employee of the United States Government as part of that person’s official duties under the terms of Title 17, Chapter 1, Section 105 of the US Code.
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| This file has been identified as being free of known restrictions under copyright law, including all related and neighboring rights. | ||
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| current | 21:53, 13 July 2020 |  | 1,275 × 1,650, 52 pages (1.39 MB) | Fæ (talk | contribs) | FEDLINK - United States Federal Collection acomplexdaptives109451931 (User talk:Fæ/IA books#Fork8) (batch 1993-2020 #5250) |
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