File:A CHEMICAL ROMANCE- HOW ALLIANCES AND CONFLICT AFFECT CHEMICAL WEAPON ADOPTION AMONG VIOLENT NON-STATE ACTORS (IA achemicalromance1094564173).pdf
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Summary[edit]
A CHEMICAL ROMANCE: HOW ALLIANCES AND CONFLICT AFFECT CHEMICAL WEAPON ADOPTION AMONG VIOLENT NON-STATE ACTORS ( ) | ||
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Author |
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Title |
A CHEMICAL ROMANCE: HOW ALLIANCES AND CONFLICT AFFECT CHEMICAL WEAPON ADOPTION AMONG VIOLENT NON-STATE ACTORS |
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Publisher |
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School |
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Description |
With an ongoing pivot toward great power competition, there may be a temptation to reduce counter-proliferation efforts against violent non-state actors (VNSA) to a peripheral mission for U.S. Special Operations Command (USSOCOM). However, the current and emerging threats of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) acquisition and use by VNSA are increasing through the ubiquity of various technologies, materials, and internet access. This research analyzes the use of chemical weapons (CW) by VNSA and the unique challenges of detecting and combating CW at the strategic, operational, and tactical levels. This research first implements regression models using chemical incident data from 1995–2017 to identify which strategic and operational environments are associated with VNSA CW adoption, and uses the outcomes to create a template for predictive intelligence methods for chemical threats. Next, the researchers conduct social network analysis to investigate commonalities among VNSA with chemical programs, and to determine if these CW tactics are geographically migrating. Then, lessons learned from the case study involving al-Qaeda in Iraq yield a proposed disruption model tested in a plausible, near-future scenario. Finally, policy recommendations are provided for USSOCOM and other relevant entities to improve counter-WMD efforts as they relate to the prediction and disruption of the chemical programs of VNSA. Subjects: WMD; weapons of mass destruction; chemical; non-state; terrorist; terrorism; deter; deterrence; SOF; special operations forces; IO; information operations; MISO; IW; information warfare; SNA; social network analysis; dark network; topology; disruption; CP; counter-proliferation; NP; nonproliferation; CT; counter-terrorism; regression; strategic; environmental factors; intelligence; R-Studio; MATLAB; simulation; agent based model |
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Language | English | |
Publication date | December 2019 | |
Current location |
IA Collections: navalpostgraduateschoollibrary; fedlink |
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Accession number |
achemicalromance1094564173 |
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Source | ||
Permission (Reusing this file) |
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States. |
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This file has been identified as being free of known restrictions under copyright law, including all related and neighboring rights. |
https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/mark/1.0/PDMCreative Commons Public Domain Mark 1.0falsefalse
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Author | Hawthorne, Susan (Sue) (CIV) |
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Short title | A CHEMICAL ROMANCE: HOW ALLIANCES AND CONFLICT AFFECT CHEMICAL WEAPON ADOPTION AMONG VIOLENT NON-STATE ACTORS |
Image title | |
File change date and time | 12:55, 2 December 2019 |
Date and time of digitizing | 12:55, 2 December 2019 |
Date metadata was last modified | 12:55, 2 December 2019 |
Software used | Acrobat PDFMaker 11 for Word |
Conversion program | Adobe PDF Library 11.0 |
Encrypted | no |
Page size | 612 x 792 pts (letter) |
Version of PDF format | 1.4 |