User talk:Timhowardriley

English: Welcome to Wikimedia Commons, Timhowardriley!

First steps tutorial Our first steps tour and our FAQ will help you a lot after registration. They explain how to customize the interface (for example the language), how to upload files and our basic licensing policy. You don't need technical skills in order to contribute here. Be bold contributing here and assume good faith for the intentions of others. This is a wiki—it is really easy. Getting help More information is available at the community portal. You may ask questions at the help desk, village pump or on IRC channel #wikimedia-commons (direct access). You can also contact an administrator on their talk page. If you have a specific copyright question, ask at Commons talk:Licensing.		Goodies, tips and tricks Put Babel boxes on your user page so others know what languages you can speak and indicate your graphic abilities. All your uploads are stored in your personal gallery Please sign your name on Talk pages by typing ~~~~ Use the CommonSense tool to find good categories for your files (then other people can find them too!) To link to an image page without embedding the image, type: [[:Image:Foo.jpg]], which produces: Image:Foo.jpg If you're copying files from another project, be sure to use the CommonsHelper Made a mistake? Did you want to rename or move a file? Simply upload the file again and mark the old one like this: {{bad name|correct name}} For more information read the full deletion guidelines
(P.S. Would you like to provide feedback on this message?)

--Legobot^Operator_talk 18:02, 13 June 2008 (UTC)

Your graph: Oil depletion per country.png - Is it original research?

I notice that your graph "Oil depletion per country" cites a source for the reserve numbers, but not for the depletion model. Is there a published source for the depletion model pictured? Without a published source, it may be original research WP:OR. Thanks. Plazak (talk) 18:06, 13 August 2013 (UTC)

The depletion model is simple subtraction based upon the data the National Geographic Magazine provided. Timhowardriley (talk) 18:50, 13 August 2013 (UTC)

That the "model is simple" I get, but is it original research? The model, as I understand it, assumes: 1) constant rate of overall world production, until it suddenly becomes zero in about 40 years; and 2) no future discoveries, and no future reserve growth by extensions of existing fields. I could note that petroleum production has never acted in that simple that way prior to 2004, and certainly has not followed this model in the 9 years since 2004; but that is beside the point. The point is that unless you can cite some knowledgeable source who proposes that this is the way that petroleum production will behave going forward, this model is WP:OR, original research. So, do you have a source in the literature? Thanks. Plazak (talk) 03:34, 3 October 2013 (UTC)

Of course, it is unknown how many barrels of oil will be discovered in the future and how many barrels of oil being depleted will change in the future. However, a pattern of depletion (production) has been established: in 2004, it was 80 million barrels per day; in 2008, it increased to 85 million barrels per day. The chart's caption addresses these. The data came from the June, 2004 issue of "National Geographic Magazine" and is properly sourced. As you observed, that was over 9 years ago. You also observed that it is unlikely that all of a sudden the oil will run out. Instead, the laws of supply and demand will delay the year we do completely run out, causing a right tail to appear on the chart. Therefore, you can either: 1) add value by directing me to the current reserves per country and the current depletion rate, and I will produce a new chart, or 2) declare the data as obsolete and remove the chart, or 3) try to convince those who want the chart that it's original research and remove the chart. But it's not original research. The research was performed by Tim Appenzeller. I took his research and crystalized one of his points to a single chart. Timhowardriley (talk) 05:40, 3 October 2013 (UTC)

The proved reserve numbers come from Appenzeller, but the graphed depletion model clearly does not. Contrary to the model, Appenzeller notes that known reserves are not the same as total recoverable reserves, and writes: "Either way, the crude won't suddenly dry up: Old oil fields don't die, they slowly fade away." This is diametrically opposed to the graphed model. Plazak (talk) 12:57, 30 October 2013 (UTC)

There are quite a few depletion studies that can be used.[1][2] Some of the EIA models are typically unrealistic. Delphi234 (talk) 02:44, 4 June 2014 (UTC)