English subtitles for clip: File:11-29-11- White House Press Briefing.webm
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1 00:00:00,700 --> 00:00:02,500 Mr. Carney: Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. 2 00:00:02,500 --> 00:00:03,233 Thank you for being here. 3 00:00:03,233 --> 00:00:05,900 I apologize for the delay this afternoon. 4 00:00:05,900 --> 00:00:10,133 I have with me the President's Chairman -- or rather the 5 00:00:10,133 --> 00:00:12,567 Chairman of the President's Council of Economic Advisers 6 00:00:12,567 --> 00:00:15,800 Alan Krueger, recently confirmed by the Senate. 7 00:00:15,800 --> 00:00:20,767 He is here to discuss with you the economic importance of the 8 00:00:20,767 --> 00:00:24,367 payroll tax cut, extending and expanding it into next year, 9 00:00:24,367 --> 00:00:29,233 as well as the importance it has had to our economy and to 160 10 00:00:29,233 --> 00:00:31,433 million Americans this year. 11 00:00:31,433 --> 00:00:35,600 So what I would like to do is have him go at the top, 12 00:00:35,600 --> 00:00:39,400 for you to address whatever questions you have on the policy 13 00:00:39,400 --> 00:00:41,000 issues to him. 14 00:00:41,000 --> 00:00:42,767 You may have some political questions, 15 00:00:42,767 --> 00:00:45,600 which are more appropriately directed towards me; 16 00:00:45,600 --> 00:00:48,934 I will remain here to take them for you -- from you, rather. 17 00:00:48,934 --> 00:00:53,300 And then I will let Alan go back to his important and difficult 18 00:00:53,300 --> 00:00:56,099 work, and then I will remain to take questions 19 00:00:56,100 --> 00:00:56,934 on other subjects. 20 00:00:56,934 --> 00:00:58,367 With that, I give you Alan Krueger. 21 00:01:01,300 --> 00:01:02,599 Mr. Krueger: Thanks, Jay. 22 00:01:02,600 --> 00:01:06,533 I thought I'd say a few words about how the economy is doing 23 00:01:06,533 --> 00:01:10,000 and the importance of extending and expanding 24 00:01:10,000 --> 00:01:11,967 the payroll tax cut. 25 00:01:11,967 --> 00:01:15,200 This is a critical time for the economy, 26 00:01:15,200 --> 00:01:18,500 and I think it's a time where the economy can use more 27 00:01:18,500 --> 00:01:22,700 medicine to strengthen and sustain the recovery. 28 00:01:22,700 --> 00:01:27,367 As you know, a year ago the Congress passed and 29 00:01:27,367 --> 00:01:30,600 the President signed a 2-percentage-point reduction 30 00:01:30,600 --> 00:01:31,600 in the payroll tax. 31 00:01:31,600 --> 00:01:35,866 That tax cut has provided important support for the 32 00:01:35,867 --> 00:01:39,400 economy, especially at a time when the economy was hit with 33 00:01:39,400 --> 00:01:44,734 some shocks such as rising gasoline prices and supply-side 34 00:01:44,734 --> 00:01:49,333 shocks from the earthquake in Japan, problems in Europe. 35 00:01:49,333 --> 00:01:53,066 The President has proposed expanding the payroll tax cut 36 00:01:53,066 --> 00:01:56,767 to 3.1 percent on the employee side, 37 00:01:56,767 --> 00:02:00,767 as well as cutting payroll taxes for employers, 38 00:02:00,767 --> 00:02:05,199 focusing the payroll tax cut for employers on small businesses 39 00:02:05,200 --> 00:02:06,834 and businesses that are expanding. 40 00:02:06,834 --> 00:02:12,166 I think the economic argument for these proposals 41 00:02:12,166 --> 00:02:13,667 is quite compelling. 42 00:02:13,667 --> 00:02:17,667 I think across the spectrum of economists you would find 43 00:02:17,667 --> 00:02:22,600 support for applying this type of medicine to the economy now. 44 00:02:22,600 --> 00:02:26,333 The economy has been recovering; we've had 45 00:02:26,333 --> 00:02:29,266 nine quarters of growth. 46 00:02:29,266 --> 00:02:32,700 But the pace of growth has been moderate. 47 00:02:32,700 --> 00:02:37,899 We still have a great many underutilized resources. 48 00:02:37,900 --> 00:02:40,533 Unemployment rate is still 9 percent. 49 00:02:40,533 --> 00:02:45,934 We still have underutilized factories and resources. 50 00:02:45,934 --> 00:02:51,166 Fundamentally, the economy is facing weak aggregate demand. 51 00:02:51,166 --> 00:02:56,367 That's economist-speak for not enough spending in the economy. 52 00:02:56,367 --> 00:03:00,233 And I think you can trace the reasons for the weak demand 53 00:03:00,233 --> 00:03:04,000 directly to the problems that caused the economic crisis: 54 00:03:04,000 --> 00:03:07,834 Families borrowed too much in the run-up to the crisis -- 55 00:03:07,834 --> 00:03:12,133 they're now paying down debt; we had a severe bubble in the 56 00:03:12,133 --> 00:03:17,834 housing market; and residential construction has been quite flat 57 00:03:17,834 --> 00:03:20,533 in the recovery -- really unprecedented to have a recovery 58 00:03:20,533 --> 00:03:24,000 where residential construction has not been increasing. 59 00:03:24,000 --> 00:03:27,066 And then on top of that, state and local governments, 60 00:03:27,066 --> 00:03:32,800 which retained employees when they were getting support from 61 00:03:32,800 --> 00:03:35,433 the Recovery Act, have been laying off workers. 62 00:03:35,433 --> 00:03:41,433 So I think those are the reasons why the recovery has not been 63 00:03:41,433 --> 00:03:44,299 stronger, and at the same time, I think it's important to 64 00:03:44,300 --> 00:03:49,000 provide insurance for the economy against further shocks, 65 00:03:49,000 --> 00:03:51,367 possible shocks down the road. 66 00:03:51,367 --> 00:03:54,600 If the payroll tax is not extended, 67 00:03:54,600 --> 00:04:00,200 then the typical family with $50,000 in earnings would face 68 00:04:00,200 --> 00:04:04,266 a $1,000 tax increase starting in January. 69 00:04:04,266 --> 00:04:10,767 What the President has proposed is extending that tax cut and 70 00:04:10,767 --> 00:04:13,799 expanding it so the typical family would have about a 71 00:04:13,800 --> 00:04:17,934 $1,500 tax cut, and as I mentioned, other components 72 00:04:17,934 --> 00:04:21,467 in the jobs act, the employer side, tax cuts, 73 00:04:21,466 --> 00:04:23,767 as well as extending unemployment benefits. 74 00:04:23,767 --> 00:04:26,367 So, with that, I'm happy to take some questions. 75 00:04:26,367 --> 00:04:27,066 Mr. Carney: Ben Feller. 76 00:04:27,066 --> 00:04:28,133 The Press: Thank you very much. 77 00:04:28,133 --> 00:04:31,032 Are you asserting that the extension of the cut would 78 00:04:31,033 --> 00:04:33,166 actually make the economy better, 79 00:04:33,166 --> 00:04:35,400 or are you just saying that allowing it to expire would 80 00:04:35,400 --> 00:04:36,767 make the economy worse? 81 00:04:36,767 --> 00:04:39,533 Mr. Krueger: I think both are true. 82 00:04:39,533 --> 00:04:42,300 The President proposed extending and expanding the tax cut, 83 00:04:42,300 --> 00:04:45,667 so the beneficial effect that we saw from the last 84 00:04:45,667 --> 00:04:47,099 round would be larger. 85 00:04:47,100 --> 00:04:50,934 I also think that the tax cuts on the employer side are 86 00:04:50,934 --> 00:04:52,567 particularly well designed. 87 00:04:52,567 --> 00:04:58,300 The CBO has concluded that the type of incremental payroll tax 88 00:04:58,300 --> 00:05:03,266 that the President has proposed has pretty high bang for the 89 00:05:03,266 --> 00:05:05,633 buck, compared to other things that could be done to strengthen 90 00:05:05,633 --> 00:05:06,633 the economy. 91 00:05:06,633 --> 00:05:10,299 And if the tax cut expires, as I said, that will be a 92 00:05:10,300 --> 00:05:15,600 $1,000 increase in taxes for the typical family, 93 00:05:15,600 --> 00:05:18,567 which would be a drag on economic growth going forward. 94 00:05:18,567 --> 00:05:23,100 And you can see economists from across the spectrum who have 95 00:05:23,100 --> 00:05:26,667 noted that this could pose a severe drag for growth going 96 00:05:26,667 --> 00:05:28,166 forward if it's allowed to expire. 97 00:05:28,166 --> 00:05:29,867 The Press: But if it's extended at the same level, 98 00:05:29,867 --> 00:05:33,300 which is something that the Hill has talked about, 2 percent, 99 00:05:33,300 --> 00:05:35,467 that wouldn't actually do anything to increase demand, 100 00:05:35,467 --> 00:05:36,265 increase spending. 101 00:05:36,266 --> 00:05:38,200 I mean, people are already getting that cut. 102 00:05:38,200 --> 00:05:39,834 Mr. Krueger: Well, compared to letting it expire, 103 00:05:39,834 --> 00:05:43,333 it certainly would support the economy. 104 00:05:43,333 --> 00:05:45,033 The Press: In terms of unemployment insurance, 105 00:05:45,033 --> 00:05:47,266 the extension that we just -- because that's the other part 106 00:05:47,266 --> 00:05:49,400 the President seems to be talking about -- failure to 107 00:05:49,400 --> 00:05:52,667 extend that, would that have a similar effect on 108 00:05:52,667 --> 00:05:54,366 aggregate demand? 109 00:05:54,367 --> 00:05:57,233 Mr. Krueger: If you look at CBO's list -- I think they looked at 110 00:05:57,233 --> 00:05:59,967 11 different policies that are currently being considered -- 111 00:05:59,967 --> 00:06:02,400 extending unemployment benefits, they concluded, 112 00:06:02,400 --> 00:06:05,700 had the biggest effect on the economy per dollar spent. 113 00:06:07,066 --> 00:06:10,599 And the unemployed tend to have a very high propensity to spend 114 00:06:10,600 --> 00:06:14,200 their benefits, because they pay bills and little income coming 115 00:06:14,200 --> 00:06:15,366 in, running down savings. 116 00:06:15,367 --> 00:06:21,066 So I think extending unemployment benefits 117 00:06:21,066 --> 00:06:26,500 as well would help to support the recovery going forward. 118 00:06:26,500 --> 00:06:27,300 Mr. Carney: Matt. 119 00:06:27,300 --> 00:06:30,867 The Press: Senate Majority Leader Reid has said -- has warned that 120 00:06:30,867 --> 00:06:34,066 the failure to extend the tax -- the payroll tax cuts could push 121 00:06:34,066 --> 00:06:36,366 the U.S. economy into recession; some independent 122 00:06:36,367 --> 00:06:37,767 economists say the same. 123 00:06:37,767 --> 00:06:40,000 Do you agree or disagree with that? 124 00:06:40,000 --> 00:06:45,100 Mr. Krueger: I think what's clear is that extending the payroll tax cut 125 00:06:45,100 --> 00:06:46,800 will strengthen the recovery. 126 00:06:46,800 --> 00:06:49,867 Without it, it will be a drag on economic growth. 127 00:06:49,867 --> 00:06:53,066 The forecasts, if you look at private sector forecasts, 128 00:06:53,066 --> 00:06:58,066 are for fairly moderate growth, perhaps not strong enough to 129 00:06:58,066 --> 00:07:02,500 bring down unemployment without the extension of the payroll tax 130 00:07:02,500 --> 00:07:05,333 cut, which is why the President proposed extending 131 00:07:05,333 --> 00:07:06,567 it and expanding it. 132 00:07:06,567 --> 00:07:08,567 The Press: Enough to cause a recession or not? 133 00:07:10,867 --> 00:07:13,533 Mr. Krueger: What I can say, from looking at the evidence, 134 00:07:13,533 --> 00:07:19,166 is that this is the medicine that we can use in the near term 135 00:07:19,166 --> 00:07:21,800 to help strengthen the recovery and to help to provide insurance 136 00:07:21,800 --> 00:07:23,533 against shocks that might be coming. 137 00:07:23,533 --> 00:07:25,400 The Press: And you mentioned the problems in Europe, 138 00:07:25,400 --> 00:07:27,734 obviously the eurozone debt problems. 139 00:07:27,734 --> 00:07:31,332 How much of a drag on the U.S. economy and on GDP growth do you 140 00:07:31,333 --> 00:07:35,900 expect for the rest of this year as well as for next year? 141 00:07:35,900 --> 00:07:38,032 Mr. Krueger: A number of economists have pointed out that the problems 142 00:07:38,033 --> 00:07:42,333 in the eurozone are a potential threat to the U.S. 143 00:07:42,333 --> 00:07:48,266 economy and economies worldwide through both financial channels 144 00:07:48,266 --> 00:07:51,200 and through our exports -- about 20 percent of our 145 00:07:51,200 --> 00:07:52,834 exports go to Europe. 146 00:07:55,200 --> 00:07:59,166 I think if one looks at the potential problems for economic 147 00:07:59,166 --> 00:08:02,100 growth coming from Europe, it even strengthens the argument 148 00:08:02,100 --> 00:08:06,500 for strengthening our own demand here at home. 149 00:08:06,500 --> 00:08:10,500 The payroll tax cut is I think an extremely sensible way of 150 00:08:10,500 --> 00:08:11,500 doing that. 151 00:08:11,500 --> 00:08:13,667 So, looking around at the developments in the 152 00:08:13,667 --> 00:08:15,767 world I think helps to strengthen the argument 153 00:08:15,767 --> 00:08:19,200 for the President's proposal. 154 00:08:19,200 --> 00:08:20,300 Mr. Carney: Jake. 155 00:08:20,300 --> 00:08:23,367 The Press: Given that the payroll tax goes to the Social Security trust 156 00:08:23,367 --> 00:08:26,867 fund, are you not concerned at all, A, 157 00:08:26,867 --> 00:08:29,433 that this will have an effect possibly on the solvency of the 158 00:08:29,433 --> 00:08:30,400 Social Security trust fund? 159 00:08:30,400 --> 00:08:34,500 And also, B, why do this every year? 160 00:08:34,500 --> 00:08:36,866 What you're calling for -- what the President is calling for, 161 00:08:36,866 --> 00:08:41,265 the tax increase will just be delayed until January 2013. 162 00:08:41,265 --> 00:08:45,199 Why not just do a whole structural change so that we 163 00:08:45,200 --> 00:08:48,900 don't have to have this same conversation every year? 164 00:08:48,900 --> 00:08:52,066 Mr. Krueger: Well, on your first question, I don't think this jeopardizes the 165 00:08:52,066 --> 00:08:55,834 Social Security trust fund or the solvency of Social Security. 166 00:08:55,834 --> 00:09:00,333 The trust fund is made whole by general revenues. 167 00:09:00,333 --> 00:09:03,900 The Social Security chief actuary has stated that this 168 00:09:03,900 --> 00:09:06,533 does not affect the solvency of Social Security. 169 00:09:06,533 --> 00:09:12,367 Moreover, the President proposed a way to pay for the extension 170 00:09:12,367 --> 00:09:14,967 and expansion of the payroll tax cut as well as the other 171 00:09:14,967 --> 00:09:19,699 components of the American Jobs Act, so over the 10-year period, 172 00:09:19,700 --> 00:09:26,367 the budget would be held neutral with respect to these cuts. 173 00:09:26,367 --> 00:09:30,500 On the second question, looking at the pace of recovery, 174 00:09:30,500 --> 00:09:34,700 looking at the threats that we face today, 175 00:09:34,700 --> 00:09:39,333 I think it's critical that we extend the payroll tax 176 00:09:39,333 --> 00:09:41,100 cut and expand it. 177 00:09:41,100 --> 00:09:44,333 Down the road, we expect that the economy will be stronger 178 00:09:44,333 --> 00:09:51,967 and that the natural process of recovery takes over -- 179 00:09:51,967 --> 00:09:53,900 The Press: In 2013, do you expect? 180 00:09:53,900 --> 00:09:57,699 Mr. Krueger: Let me just say that recovery has been more sluggish than one 181 00:09:57,700 --> 00:10:02,166 might expect coming out of a recession because of the nature 182 00:10:02,166 --> 00:10:05,967 of the problems that created the crisis -- because consumers 183 00:10:05,967 --> 00:10:08,467 built up so much debt that they're working their way down, 184 00:10:08,467 --> 00:10:10,433 because of problems in the housing market. 185 00:10:10,433 --> 00:10:12,900 We're seeing the economy heal; it's just not healing 186 00:10:12,900 --> 00:10:14,066 fast enough. 187 00:10:14,066 --> 00:10:18,033 So these measures would help to sustain the recovery and, 188 00:10:18,033 --> 00:10:22,900 down the road, such measures won't be necessary. 189 00:10:22,900 --> 00:10:23,967 The Press: Can I just do a quick follow-up? 190 00:10:23,967 --> 00:10:27,367 I'm sorry. It seems the language that many in the White House and 191 00:10:27,367 --> 00:10:31,233 the administration are using about whether or not the payroll 192 00:10:31,233 --> 00:10:35,199 tax cut extension would be paid for is shifting a little bit in 193 00:10:35,200 --> 00:10:38,333 terms of how important it is that the pay-for is actually 194 00:10:38,333 --> 00:10:42,367 passed in combination with the extension. 195 00:10:42,367 --> 00:10:45,300 Would the President sign legislation that extended 196 00:10:45,300 --> 00:10:49,266 the payroll tax cut if it weren't paid for? 197 00:10:49,266 --> 00:10:53,599 Mr. Krueger: The President proposed a way to do this and a way to pay for it. 198 00:10:53,600 --> 00:10:56,600 The Senate Democrats came up with an alternative way to pay 199 00:10:56,600 --> 00:11:01,500 for it, which the President has said that he could support. 200 00:11:01,500 --> 00:11:04,300 I think both of those approaches are sensible approaches. 201 00:11:08,700 --> 00:11:14,600 And I think what we need to do is look for a way to extend the 202 00:11:14,600 --> 00:11:18,834 proposal -- extend the tax cut, which makes economic sense. 203 00:11:18,834 --> 00:11:20,967 Mr. Carney: Norah, and then Mara. 204 00:11:20,967 --> 00:11:22,834 The Press: It appears the Joint Tax Committee has said that 205 00:11:22,834 --> 00:11:28,132 about a third of small businesses would be taxed 206 00:11:28,133 --> 00:11:30,000 additionally if you have the pay-for -- 207 00:11:30,000 --> 00:11:32,200 the so-called "millionaires tax." 208 00:11:32,200 --> 00:11:35,467 Wouldn't that be hurtful to the economy, that pay-for, 209 00:11:35,467 --> 00:11:37,633 in terms of it hurting small businesses in that way by taxing 210 00:11:37,633 --> 00:11:41,033 them additionally to pay for this? 211 00:11:41,033 --> 00:11:44,467 Mr. Krueger: The tax on incomes above a million dollars a year 212 00:11:44,467 --> 00:11:47,834 I think would hit very few small businesses. 213 00:11:47,834 --> 00:11:51,099 The vast majority -- one figure I saw was 99 percent 214 00:11:51,100 --> 00:11:55,767 of individuals with small business income would not 215 00:11:55,767 --> 00:11:57,633 be affected by this. 216 00:11:57,633 --> 00:12:00,867 So the vast majority of employers would be unaffected 217 00:12:00,867 --> 00:12:05,867 by what was proposed to pay for the payroll tax extension. 218 00:12:05,867 --> 00:12:06,867 Mr. Carney: Mara. 219 00:12:06,867 --> 00:12:09,099 The Press: Mitch McConnell has said that you're proposing to 220 00:12:09,100 --> 00:12:12,500 put a permanent tax on millionaires in exchange 221 00:12:12,500 --> 00:12:14,834 for this temporary tax cut. 222 00:12:14,834 --> 00:12:17,766 What would be the effect of the surtax on millionaires, 223 00:12:17,767 --> 00:12:19,834 the economic effect? 224 00:12:19,834 --> 00:12:23,266 Mr. Krueger: Well, the way to analyze economic effect is to say, 225 00:12:23,266 --> 00:12:27,132 when does the tax cut take effect? 226 00:12:27,133 --> 00:12:30,233 When does the tax increase to pay for it take effect? 227 00:12:30,233 --> 00:12:32,165 Those are not at the same time. 228 00:12:32,166 --> 00:12:33,567 The tax cut would be immediate. 229 00:12:33,567 --> 00:12:38,100 It would be for virtually all working families, 230 00:12:38,100 --> 00:12:41,867 focused on families with moderate incomes. 231 00:12:41,867 --> 00:12:46,333 So then look at what's the marginal propensity to spend 232 00:12:46,333 --> 00:12:48,699 out of income for the different groups that are affected by the 233 00:12:48,700 --> 00:12:52,266 tax cut and the way that it's paid for. 234 00:12:52,266 --> 00:12:56,567 The families that would be affected by the tax cut tend 235 00:12:56,567 --> 00:12:59,000 to have a higher marginal propensity to spend, 236 00:12:59,000 --> 00:13:01,767 which would provide more support for the economy right away. 237 00:13:01,767 --> 00:13:05,367 Those in upper-income groups with incomes above a million 238 00:13:05,367 --> 00:13:07,632 dollars a year tend to have a lower marginal 239 00:13:07,633 --> 00:13:09,300 propensity to consume. 240 00:13:09,300 --> 00:13:11,433 So I think if you're thinking about how is this going to 241 00:13:11,433 --> 00:13:13,333 affect the economy in the short run and the long run, 242 00:13:13,333 --> 00:13:16,199 this is the right fiscal path for strengthening the economy 243 00:13:16,200 --> 00:13:21,166 now and ensuring that it's done in a fiscally responsible way. 244 00:13:21,166 --> 00:13:22,700 The Press: And can you just clarify something? 245 00:13:22,700 --> 00:13:25,233 You said it would be a $1,000 tax increase if this isn't 246 00:13:25,233 --> 00:13:29,132 passed, but it would be a $1,500 tax cut if it is. 247 00:13:29,133 --> 00:13:30,700 How can that be? 248 00:13:30,700 --> 00:13:32,567 Mr. Krueger: The question is what baselines you use. 249 00:13:32,567 --> 00:13:36,333 So if you compare the status quo, 250 00:13:36,333 --> 00:13:40,300 if the payroll tax cut is not extended, 251 00:13:40,300 --> 00:13:44,233 that would mean starting in January an increase in payroll 252 00:13:44,233 --> 00:13:47,834 taxes for virtually all workers of 2 percent. 253 00:13:47,834 --> 00:13:51,834 For a family earning $1,000 -- earning $50,000, 254 00:13:51,834 --> 00:13:54,867 that equates to a $1,000 tax increase. 255 00:13:54,867 --> 00:13:59,800 What the President has proposed is extending and expanding the 256 00:13:59,800 --> 00:14:03,266 payroll tax cut, so the 3.1 percent compared to if it's 257 00:14:03,266 --> 00:14:04,666 allowed to expire. 258 00:14:04,667 --> 00:14:07,667 Mr. Carney: Let's do Ed, then Laura. 259 00:14:07,667 --> 00:14:09,834 The Press: Can I just ask -- the President wants to extend 260 00:14:09,834 --> 00:14:10,666 unemployment benefits. 261 00:14:10,667 --> 00:14:13,166 You did a study a few months ago suggesting the longer people are 262 00:14:13,166 --> 00:14:16,033 out of work the less time they end up spending looking 263 00:14:16,033 --> 00:14:17,500 for work. 264 00:14:17,500 --> 00:14:19,867 So how does that square with trying to give people more 265 00:14:19,867 --> 00:14:24,500 benefits and stay unemployed longer? 266 00:14:24,500 --> 00:14:26,066 Mr. Krueger: And I hope you've read the study. 267 00:14:26,066 --> 00:14:27,266 The Press: Not the entire -- 268 00:14:27,266 --> 00:14:28,433 Mr. Krueger: That's all right. 269 00:14:28,433 --> 00:14:30,934 The Press: It was written about extensively. 270 00:14:30,934 --> 00:14:34,500 Mr. Krueger: So there's a lot of research on the effect of extended 271 00:14:34,500 --> 00:14:36,433 unemployment benefits, unemployment benefits 272 00:14:36,433 --> 00:14:37,433 more generally. 273 00:14:37,433 --> 00:14:39,367 I think there's a fair amount of consensus in the economics 274 00:14:39,367 --> 00:14:42,699 profession that there are tradeoffs involved, 275 00:14:42,700 --> 00:14:46,533 that particularly if you look at normal times when we're close to 276 00:14:46,533 --> 00:14:52,066 full employment, that higher benefits or extended benefits 277 00:14:52,066 --> 00:14:54,467 do have some effect on search activity. 278 00:14:55,367 --> 00:15:00,467 That effect is greatly reduced now when we have over four job 279 00:15:00,467 --> 00:15:02,967 seekers for every vacancy. 280 00:15:02,967 --> 00:15:10,633 The effect of any individual perhaps taking more time to find 281 00:15:10,633 --> 00:15:13,867 a job that's suitable for him or her is going to have less effect 282 00:15:13,867 --> 00:15:17,433 when there are other job seekers available for those positions. 283 00:15:17,433 --> 00:15:18,433 That's on the one hand. 284 00:15:18,433 --> 00:15:22,066 On the other hand, another effect of unemployment benefits 285 00:15:22,066 --> 00:15:25,033 is that it provides critical income support for families when 286 00:15:25,033 --> 00:15:26,667 they're going through a very difficult time. 287 00:15:26,667 --> 00:15:30,000 I mentioned earlier that the unemployed tend to have a high 288 00:15:30,000 --> 00:15:34,533 marginal propensity to spend out of benefits that they receive to 289 00:15:34,533 --> 00:15:36,800 pay for their mortgages, and that helps to prevent 290 00:15:36,800 --> 00:15:39,400 foreclosures, and pay for food and so on, 291 00:15:39,400 --> 00:15:42,165 which supports the economy more generally. 292 00:15:42,166 --> 00:15:44,633 The CBO, when it looked at this and weighed these different 293 00:15:44,633 --> 00:15:48,233 factors, came to the conclusion, which I think is a sensible 294 00:15:48,233 --> 00:15:51,733 conclusion, that extending unemployment benefits provides 295 00:15:51,734 --> 00:15:56,533 the biggest bang for the buck in terms of strengthening 296 00:15:56,533 --> 00:15:59,133 consumption in the economy and creating jobs, 297 00:15:59,133 --> 00:16:02,233 taking all of those factors into account. 298 00:16:02,233 --> 00:16:03,800 Mr. Carney: Laura. 299 00:16:03,800 --> 00:16:06,000 The Press: Thank you. I want to follow up on Jake's question, 300 00:16:06,000 --> 00:16:10,567 which was whether the White House would accept a payroll 301 00:16:10,567 --> 00:16:13,867 tax cut or the UI extension without it being paid for. 302 00:16:13,867 --> 00:16:16,500 You mentioned that the President had a proposal and the Senate 303 00:16:16,500 --> 00:16:19,900 Democrats have a proposal and that they both make sense, 304 00:16:19,900 --> 00:16:23,533 but I think what I'd like to know is whether it would be okay 305 00:16:23,533 --> 00:16:25,900 to do it without either one of those and just -- would that be 306 00:16:25,900 --> 00:16:29,567 one acceptable outcome, given the economics involved? 307 00:16:29,567 --> 00:16:32,066 Mr. Krueger: I don't want to go into what might happen when the Senate 308 00:16:32,066 --> 00:16:37,667 still hasn't voted on the bill that Senator Casey has proposed; 309 00:16:37,667 --> 00:16:39,266 they're going to vote on that later this week. 310 00:16:39,266 --> 00:16:42,533 I can tell you that from my perspective, 311 00:16:42,533 --> 00:16:46,934 and I believe from the administration's perspective, 312 00:16:46,934 --> 00:16:49,433 doing this in a way that makes economic sense is 313 00:16:49,433 --> 00:16:50,600 the way to proceed. 314 00:16:50,600 --> 00:16:55,734 And I'm sure that the President would consider whether it's a 315 00:16:55,734 --> 00:16:58,000 sensible economic strategy going forward. 316 00:16:58,000 --> 00:17:03,166 But I think it's first important that the Senate consider the 317 00:17:03,166 --> 00:17:06,233 legislation that's before it, which does pay for this with 318 00:17:06,233 --> 00:17:09,399 a way that the Senate Democrats have proposed. 319 00:17:09,400 --> 00:17:12,133 The Press: And some would say that it makes economic sense to -- 320 00:17:12,133 --> 00:17:14,800 in a recession to have some upfront spending, 321 00:17:14,800 --> 00:17:18,233 even if it does increase the deficit long term. 322 00:17:18,233 --> 00:17:19,899 Would you agree with that? 323 00:17:19,900 --> 00:17:24,367 Mr. Krueger: You know, I would need to look at what the proposals are and 324 00:17:24,367 --> 00:17:25,800 wait until that point. 325 00:17:25,800 --> 00:17:27,433 But hopefully Jay can have me back. 326 00:17:27,433 --> 00:17:29,200 Mr. Carney: I'll definitely have you back. 327 00:17:29,200 --> 00:17:31,867 The Press: That was what -- so you don't have -- 328 00:17:31,867 --> 00:17:32,567 Mr. Carney: Well we're not going to -- 329 00:17:32,567 --> 00:17:34,734 The Press: In a perfect world, you don't -- I mean, 330 00:17:34,734 --> 00:17:37,934 does it make sense in this economy to actually find a 331 00:17:37,934 --> 00:17:41,734 pay-for for this? 332 00:17:41,734 --> 00:17:44,132 Mr. Krueger: I don't want to go into specifics about what kind 333 00:17:44,133 --> 00:17:45,033 of -- finding a pay-for. 334 00:17:45,033 --> 00:17:46,667 Some pay-fors make sense, some don't. 335 00:17:48,266 --> 00:17:52,133 All I can tell you is, I think at this point the right fiscal 336 00:17:52,133 --> 00:17:56,633 path for the country is to try to support the economy in the 337 00:17:56,633 --> 00:18:00,100 short run, and to do it in a fiscally responsible way, 338 00:18:00,100 --> 00:18:04,199 which is over a period of, say, a 10-year window -- which is 339 00:18:04,200 --> 00:18:07,767 common -- to have it be paid for. 340 00:18:07,767 --> 00:18:10,100 That's what the President has proposed. 341 00:18:10,100 --> 00:18:10,699 The Press: But you're open to not -- 342 00:18:10,700 --> 00:18:11,567 Mr. Carney: Let's just do -- 343 00:18:11,567 --> 00:18:13,800 The Press: You're open to not paying for it? 344 00:18:13,800 --> 00:18:15,899 Mr. Carney: Let me just take it. 345 00:18:15,900 --> 00:18:17,934 I think I've gotten this, Alan's now gotten it three times. 346 00:18:17,934 --> 00:18:21,899 We're not going to speculate about what might happen if 347 00:18:21,900 --> 00:18:24,900 Senate Republicans do not hear the call of the vast majority of 348 00:18:24,900 --> 00:18:28,367 the American people to vote in favor of extending and expanding 349 00:18:28,367 --> 00:18:31,966 the payroll tax cut, and paying for it in a way that is entirely 350 00:18:31,967 --> 00:18:36,934 economically responsible and broadly supported by the 351 00:18:36,934 --> 00:18:40,466 American people, Americans of all political persuasion. 352 00:18:40,467 --> 00:18:42,200 So that vote hasn't happened yet. 353 00:18:42,200 --> 00:18:45,233 We certainly hope that enough senators vote for it, 354 00:18:45,233 --> 00:18:48,300 that it will then move to the House, pass there, 355 00:18:48,300 --> 00:18:50,466 and be signed into law by the President. 356 00:18:50,467 --> 00:18:53,567 It would certainly be nice if a simple majority of senators were 357 00:18:53,567 --> 00:18:56,233 allowed to vote on this, pass it and send it to the President -- 358 00:18:56,233 --> 00:18:58,200 send it to the House and the President's desk. 359 00:18:58,200 --> 00:19:00,266 We certainly know that a vast majority of the American people 360 00:19:00,266 --> 00:19:01,266 support it. 361 00:19:01,266 --> 00:19:04,533 So we're not going to speculate about endgames if certain things 362 00:19:04,533 --> 00:19:06,300 do or don't happen in the Senate. 363 00:19:06,300 --> 00:19:08,600 I got a couple more for Alan because I have a hard 364 00:19:08,600 --> 00:19:09,533 out for me. 365 00:19:09,533 --> 00:19:11,033 (laughter) 366 00:19:11,033 --> 00:19:12,065 Mr. Krueger: Knew there was a reason you wanted me. 367 00:19:12,066 --> 00:19:13,100 Mr. Carney: Mark. Yes. 368 00:19:13,100 --> 00:19:15,533 The Press: Can I ask you about the national debt? 369 00:19:15,533 --> 00:19:18,966 It topped $15 trillion a couple of weeks ago, 370 00:19:18,967 --> 00:19:24,233 and it's now bearing down on 100 percent of GDP. 371 00:19:24,233 --> 00:19:25,800 Does that worry you? 372 00:19:27,500 --> 00:19:29,567 Mr. Krueger: I think it's very important that we get on a sustainable 373 00:19:29,567 --> 00:19:30,734 fiscal path. 374 00:19:30,734 --> 00:19:32,766 I think it's also important we measure the debt in the right 375 00:19:32,767 --> 00:19:35,633 way, looking at net debt held by the public. 376 00:19:35,633 --> 00:19:37,266 But hold that aside. 377 00:19:37,266 --> 00:19:42,934 The President has proposed -- in September gave a proposal to the 378 00:19:42,934 --> 00:19:46,899 super committee or joint committee of Congress to help 379 00:19:46,900 --> 00:19:49,100 put us on a fiscally sustainable path. 380 00:19:49,100 --> 00:19:52,265 And I think that as we strengthen the economy in the 381 00:19:52,266 --> 00:19:57,433 short run, we need to do two things at once: We need to 382 00:19:57,433 --> 00:19:58,800 strengthen the economy in the short run, 383 00:19:58,800 --> 00:20:03,399 and we need to return to a fiscally sustainable path. 384 00:20:03,400 --> 00:20:05,934 The Press: If Congress just extends it at the 2 percent, 385 00:20:05,934 --> 00:20:09,166 would that lower the unemployment rate next year? 386 00:20:09,166 --> 00:20:12,300 Mr. Krueger: I think if you look at independent estimates from 387 00:20:12,300 --> 00:20:18,767 across the spectrum, they would predict that extending the 388 00:20:18,767 --> 00:20:24,200 payroll tax cut or expanding it would lead to stronger economic 389 00:20:24,200 --> 00:20:28,133 growth and more employment than would otherwise be the case. 390 00:20:28,133 --> 00:20:29,767 The Press: But just the extension, just the 2 percent, 391 00:20:29,767 --> 00:20:32,467 that would lower the unemployment rate? 392 00:20:32,467 --> 00:20:35,233 Mr. Krueger: I think that that would create more jobs compared to the 393 00:20:35,233 --> 00:20:37,200 situation if it's not extended. 394 00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:38,567 The Press: What would that do to the actual rate? 395 00:20:38,567 --> 00:20:39,500 I'm sorry. 396 00:20:39,500 --> 00:20:42,233 Mr. Krueger: If you compare it to what the unemployment rate would be if 397 00:20:42,233 --> 00:20:45,000 it were not extended, I think because we would have more job 398 00:20:45,000 --> 00:20:48,133 growth by extending it, all else equal, 399 00:20:48,133 --> 00:20:50,400 it would lead to a lower unemployment rate. 400 00:20:50,400 --> 00:20:54,800 But the important thing is to compare it to how does it affect 401 00:20:54,800 --> 00:20:56,533 economic growth, how does it affect job growth, 402 00:20:56,533 --> 00:20:59,600 compared to extending it versus not extending it. 403 00:20:59,600 --> 00:21:00,667 Mr. Carney: Let me do one more. 404 00:21:00,667 --> 00:21:03,766 The Press: To follow on that then, would the White House consider, 405 00:21:03,767 --> 00:21:07,200 regardless of the pay-for, simply extending the payroll 406 00:21:07,200 --> 00:21:08,967 tax cut without an expansion? 407 00:21:08,967 --> 00:21:11,400 I haven't heard that. 408 00:21:11,400 --> 00:21:12,834 Mr. Krueger: I'm going to rewind what Jay said. 409 00:21:12,834 --> 00:21:13,533 Mr. Carney: Yes. 410 00:21:13,533 --> 00:21:17,332 Mr. Krueger: The Senate is considering a bill later this week, 411 00:21:17,333 --> 00:21:19,166 which has a way to pay for it. 412 00:21:19,166 --> 00:21:20,934 The President proposed a way to pay for it. 413 00:21:22,100 --> 00:21:26,000 And we're open to economically sensible ways of trying to 414 00:21:26,000 --> 00:21:30,633 strengthen the economy and do it in a fiscally responsible way. 415 00:21:30,633 --> 00:21:33,467 Mr. Carney: Thank you, Alan. Appreciate it. 416 00:21:33,467 --> 00:21:34,500 Thank you all. 417 00:21:34,500 --> 00:21:39,333 I will now let Alan get back to his economic work, 418 00:21:39,333 --> 00:21:41,066 and will take your questions on other issues. 419 00:21:41,066 --> 00:21:45,166 I, regrettably, have to leave here in about 15 minutes. 420 00:21:45,166 --> 00:21:47,533 Before I take questions, I just wanted to note, 421 00:21:47,533 --> 00:21:50,867 as I'm sure all of you saw, that the Vice President landed in 422 00:21:50,867 --> 00:21:55,300 Baghdad earlier today on a visit, 423 00:21:55,300 --> 00:21:57,166 I think his eighth as Vice President, 424 00:21:57,166 --> 00:22:05,066 and an even higher number since he was a senator or in the last 425 00:22:05,066 --> 00:22:06,066 eight or 10 years. 426 00:22:06,066 --> 00:22:10,300 I just want to note that President Obama, 427 00:22:10,300 --> 00:22:11,867 when he was running for this office, 428 00:22:11,867 --> 00:22:14,633 made clear that if elected he would end 429 00:22:14,633 --> 00:22:17,734 the war in Iraq responsibly. 430 00:22:17,734 --> 00:22:21,699 What we're seeing happen in these final six weeks of the 431 00:22:21,700 --> 00:22:23,834 year is the fulfillment of that promise, 432 00:22:23,834 --> 00:22:29,266 where we're withdrawing the remaining U.S. forces 433 00:22:29,266 --> 00:22:34,166 from Iraq and we are ending that war responsibly 434 00:22:34,166 --> 00:22:39,367 and giving the Iraqi people the chance for a better future that 435 00:22:39,367 --> 00:22:43,133 they deserve and also maintaining an important 436 00:22:43,133 --> 00:22:45,633 strategic relationship with Iraq. 437 00:22:45,633 --> 00:22:47,333 I would note that having, as you know, 438 00:22:47,333 --> 00:22:49,500 worked for the Vice President during his first two years here, 439 00:22:49,500 --> 00:22:53,734 that it was a measure of the President's seriousness about 440 00:22:53,734 --> 00:22:57,500 Iraq and seriousness about fulfilling his commitment that 441 00:22:57,500 --> 00:22:59,934 he asked the Vice President to take on day-to-day management 442 00:22:59,934 --> 00:23:02,734 of this policy, which is why he has traveled, as you know, 443 00:23:02,734 --> 00:23:06,833 so often to Iraq over the last nearly three years. 444 00:23:06,834 --> 00:23:08,367 And with that, I will take your questions. 445 00:23:08,367 --> 00:23:09,367 Jake. 446 00:23:09,367 --> 00:23:11,500 The Press: I've heard from a lot of Democrats in the last few 447 00:23:11,500 --> 00:23:14,000 weeks who are concerned about President Obama possibly 448 00:23:14,000 --> 00:23:16,633 granting an exemption to Catholic churches, 449 00:23:16,633 --> 00:23:19,900 hospitals and universities from the requirement that 450 00:23:19,900 --> 00:23:23,800 all insurance plans cover contraception. 451 00:23:23,800 --> 00:23:27,133 I'm wondering if you could shed any light on this decision. 452 00:23:27,133 --> 00:23:29,567 I know the President has not yet made a decision, 453 00:23:29,567 --> 00:23:32,100 but I think these Democrats, a lot of them in the abortion 454 00:23:32,100 --> 00:23:34,233 rights community, are concerned that this is 455 00:23:34,233 --> 00:23:36,066 even being discussed. 456 00:23:36,066 --> 00:23:39,333 Could you explain why the President is considering an 457 00:23:39,333 --> 00:23:42,533 exemption, and what's going into his decision-making? 458 00:23:42,533 --> 00:23:44,632 Mr. Carney: Well, part of the process, Jake, as you know, 459 00:23:44,633 --> 00:23:49,200 was seeking and receiving public input before the guidelines that 460 00:23:49,200 --> 00:23:54,900 were announced by the Secretary of Health and Human Services 461 00:23:54,900 --> 00:23:56,033 would go into effect. 462 00:23:56,033 --> 00:24:00,567 That process did result in public input, 463 00:24:00,567 --> 00:24:07,500 as well as resulted in numerous comments from various folks who 464 00:24:07,500 --> 00:24:10,567 have concerns about this issue. 465 00:24:10,567 --> 00:24:13,667 The President has -- this decision has not yet been made. 466 00:24:13,667 --> 00:24:18,466 You can be sure that we want to strike the right balance between 467 00:24:18,467 --> 00:24:22,800 expanding coverage of preventive services and respecting 468 00:24:22,800 --> 00:24:23,767 religious beliefs. 469 00:24:23,767 --> 00:24:26,100 And that's the balance that will be sought as 470 00:24:26,100 --> 00:24:28,533 this decision is made. 471 00:24:28,533 --> 00:24:29,632 Ben. 472 00:24:29,633 --> 00:24:31,700 The Press: Believe it or not, I had a quick follow-up on the payroll tax. 473 00:24:31,700 --> 00:24:33,567 Mr. Carney: Sure. 474 00:24:33,567 --> 00:24:36,000 The Press: I know you don't want to comment about a Senate vote that hasn't 475 00:24:36,000 --> 00:24:38,133 happened yet, and I'm not asking about that. 476 00:24:38,133 --> 00:24:39,467 I understand your point on that. 477 00:24:39,467 --> 00:24:41,400 What I'm asking is about the President's point when he 478 00:24:41,400 --> 00:24:44,567 unveiled the payroll tax at the end-of-September speech. 479 00:24:44,567 --> 00:24:47,967 He said then that every idea in his plan will be paid for, 480 00:24:47,967 --> 00:24:52,900 and he has said it dozens of times since then. 481 00:24:52,900 --> 00:24:55,600 I'm just wondering if he stands by that, that he has proposals, 482 00:24:55,600 --> 00:24:57,734 including this payroll tax extension, 483 00:24:57,734 --> 00:24:59,399 he wants Congress to pass them and he wants them to 484 00:24:59,400 --> 00:25:01,900 be paid for. 485 00:25:01,900 --> 00:25:09,266 Mr. Carney: I will repeat what Alan said and add a little bit to it. 486 00:25:09,266 --> 00:25:11,567 As you noted, in September the President put forward a 487 00:25:11,567 --> 00:25:14,066 comprehensive proposal, the American Jobs Act, 488 00:25:14,066 --> 00:25:17,467 that included within it the extension and expansion of the 489 00:25:17,467 --> 00:25:22,433 payroll tax cut for 160 million Americans -- a tax cut that goes 490 00:25:22,433 --> 00:25:26,133 right to hardworking middle-class Americans, 491 00:25:26,133 --> 00:25:30,533 a tax cut that has given this year an average of $1,000 492 00:25:30,533 --> 00:25:36,065 extra in the average family's wallet, and would, 493 00:25:36,066 --> 00:25:40,800 if expanded next year, result in a $1,500 tax cut. 494 00:25:40,800 --> 00:25:42,265 That's very important for those families, 495 00:25:42,266 --> 00:25:45,266 to help them make ends meet as we continue to emerge from the 496 00:25:45,266 --> 00:25:49,166 worst recession in our lifetime, since the Great Depression. 497 00:25:49,166 --> 00:25:50,466 And it's important for the economy, 498 00:25:50,467 --> 00:25:57,166 because as Alan noted earlier, the payroll tax cut is widely 499 00:25:57,166 --> 00:25:59,899 viewed by economists -- independent economists and 500 00:25:59,900 --> 00:26:02,967 forecasters to have a very positive impact on economic 501 00:26:02,967 --> 00:26:05,800 growth and job creation. 502 00:26:05,800 --> 00:26:08,966 The President believes that the best way to do this is the way 503 00:26:08,967 --> 00:26:12,066 that he put forward, with the pay-for that he put forward. 504 00:26:12,066 --> 00:26:14,500 He also believes that the pay-for the Senate Democrats 505 00:26:14,500 --> 00:26:17,867 have put forward meets the principles that he laid out. 506 00:26:17,867 --> 00:26:21,233 And he looks forward to the Senate voting on the proposal 507 00:26:21,233 --> 00:26:24,466 that Senator Casey has put forward later this week. 508 00:26:24,467 --> 00:26:25,800 It's the responsible thing to do. 509 00:26:25,800 --> 00:26:28,300 And as I think I noted the other day, 510 00:26:28,300 --> 00:26:32,767 if only Senate Republicans who say they will vote against this 511 00:26:32,767 --> 00:26:36,767 express as much passion about the need to cut taxes for the 512 00:26:36,767 --> 00:26:40,967 middle class as they express to protect tax cuts and protect the 513 00:26:40,967 --> 00:26:42,900 incomes of millionaires and billionaires, 514 00:26:42,900 --> 00:26:48,266 we might be able to get this done without much hullabaloo. 515 00:26:48,266 --> 00:26:53,033 I mean, this after all -- is anyone here surprised that we're 516 00:26:53,033 --> 00:26:56,199 in a debate with Republicans about whether or not to cut 517 00:26:56,200 --> 00:26:59,467 taxes is the right thing to do for the middle class? 518 00:26:59,467 --> 00:27:02,233 I thought they were for tax cuts. 519 00:27:02,233 --> 00:27:04,734 The President has put forward this tax cut and expanding it 520 00:27:04,734 --> 00:27:09,833 for the middle class, for 160 million working Americans, 521 00:27:09,834 --> 00:27:11,633 and we'll have a vote on that later this week. 522 00:27:11,633 --> 00:27:13,767 And what you all are telling me is that Republicans are going to 523 00:27:13,767 --> 00:27:15,867 vote against it. 524 00:27:15,867 --> 00:27:18,033 They have to explain that. 525 00:27:18,033 --> 00:27:20,632 And the reason they're going to vote against it they say so far 526 00:27:20,633 --> 00:27:24,633 is because they don't want it to be paid for in a way that the 527 00:27:24,633 --> 00:27:28,033 vast majority of Americans support that asks millionaires 528 00:27:28,033 --> 00:27:31,500 and billionaires to pay a little bit extra -- millionaires and 529 00:27:31,500 --> 00:27:34,633 billionaires who, as you know, based on the CBO study and many 530 00:27:34,633 --> 00:27:36,834 others, have done exceptionally well, 531 00:27:36,834 --> 00:27:44,533 have seen their slice of the American pie grow as the middle 532 00:27:44,533 --> 00:27:48,166 class has been squeezed. 533 00:27:48,166 --> 00:27:52,466 So we certainly hope that Senate Republicans will hear the call 534 00:27:52,467 --> 00:27:56,400 of their constituents, reconsider their vote 535 00:27:56,400 --> 00:28:00,467 later this week, and pass this with more than 60 votes and send 536 00:28:00,467 --> 00:28:01,367 it to the House. 537 00:28:01,367 --> 00:28:03,100 The Press: Nothing you just said responds to Ben's question, 538 00:28:03,100 --> 00:28:06,265 which was does he still stand by his statement? 539 00:28:06,266 --> 00:28:08,900 Mr. Carney: That is the President's preferred choice. 540 00:28:08,900 --> 00:28:12,567 You're asking me -- if only it were the case that what this 541 00:28:12,567 --> 00:28:18,567 President wanted he got in whole and in full. 542 00:28:18,567 --> 00:28:21,100 And certainly that's what we would ask of the Senate, 543 00:28:21,100 --> 00:28:23,265 that they would pass the American Jobs Act in its 544 00:28:23,266 --> 00:28:25,734 entirety as written by the President, 545 00:28:25,734 --> 00:28:27,100 proposed by the President. 546 00:28:27,100 --> 00:28:29,632 Unfortunately, thus far, this has not happened. 547 00:28:29,633 --> 00:28:32,867 We have had one modest but important success working 548 00:28:32,867 --> 00:28:35,200 with the Congress on one element of the Jobs Act, 549 00:28:35,200 --> 00:28:38,200 and that was the assistance to veterans, to hiring veterans. 550 00:28:38,200 --> 00:28:41,467 We hope that Congress will act on the payroll tax cut 551 00:28:41,467 --> 00:28:42,467 and expansion. 552 00:28:42,467 --> 00:28:45,700 I'm not going to speculate about what Congress might do, 553 00:28:45,700 --> 00:28:49,300 and as Alan said, what pay-fors they might come up with if they 554 00:28:49,300 --> 00:28:53,367 vote this down, this very responsible provision or 555 00:28:53,367 --> 00:28:55,000 proposal that will come forward in the Senate 556 00:28:55,000 --> 00:28:56,000 later this week. Ed. 557 00:28:56,000 --> 00:28:57,934 The Press: You can't say whether the President would sign a bill 558 00:28:57,934 --> 00:28:59,533 that is paid for or not? 559 00:28:59,533 --> 00:29:02,800 Mr. Carney: We don't know what the end game is yet. 560 00:29:02,800 --> 00:29:08,567 And there is no value in this process or ultimately for the 561 00:29:08,567 --> 00:29:12,433 American people who want and deserve this tax cut to 562 00:29:12,433 --> 00:29:15,967 negotiate an end game here before we've even had a vote. 563 00:29:15,967 --> 00:29:17,867 So I'm not going to go any further on that. Ed. 564 00:29:17,867 --> 00:29:22,166 The Press: You do it all the time. You put out veto threats. 565 00:29:22,166 --> 00:29:25,300 Mr. Carney: I don't have a bill -- the bill that Ben is talking about and 566 00:29:25,300 --> 00:29:28,533 others have now asked in a variety of occasions, 567 00:29:28,533 --> 00:29:33,367 a hypothetical bill that puts forward either an extension or 568 00:29:33,367 --> 00:29:34,300 an expansion of the payroll -- 569 00:29:34,300 --> 00:29:35,000 The Press: Without a pay-for? 570 00:29:35,000 --> 00:29:36,700 Mr. Carney: -- does not yet exist. 571 00:29:36,700 --> 00:29:38,867 We put out SAPs when there are bills to put out SAPs on. 572 00:29:38,867 --> 00:29:41,066 The Press: That's the idea of rolling back the sequester -- 573 00:29:41,066 --> 00:29:47,266 Mr. Carney: There is a bill on -- in the Senate that will be voted on 574 00:29:47,266 --> 00:29:49,900 later this week and we fully support that bill. Ed. 575 00:29:49,900 --> 00:29:51,100 The Press: I want to make sure before we lose you, 576 00:29:51,100 --> 00:29:53,766 we get you reacting to Iran. 577 00:29:53,767 --> 00:29:57,166 The U.N. Security Council condemned the fact that the 578 00:29:57,166 --> 00:29:59,399 government there did not help secure the 579 00:29:59,400 --> 00:30:00,700 British diplomatic offices. 580 00:30:00,700 --> 00:30:01,767 I wonder if you could react to that. 581 00:30:01,767 --> 00:30:05,667 But also, has the President instructed any U.S. personnel 582 00:30:05,667 --> 00:30:09,199 to do anything with U.S. embassies around the world 583 00:30:09,200 --> 00:30:10,200 in other hot spots? 584 00:30:10,200 --> 00:30:13,800 Is there any concern about U.S. embassies around the world? 585 00:30:13,800 --> 00:30:17,066 Mr. Carney: I don't have any announcement to make with regard to the second 586 00:30:17,066 --> 00:30:18,066 part of your question. 587 00:30:18,066 --> 00:30:19,333 You might want to check with the State Department. 588 00:30:19,333 --> 00:30:25,467 But I'm not aware of anything related to the events in Tehran. 589 00:30:25,467 --> 00:30:27,800 I put out a statement earlier today, as you know, 590 00:30:27,800 --> 00:30:30,934 saying that the United States condemns in the strongest terms 591 00:30:30,934 --> 00:30:34,332 the storming of the British embassy in Tehran. 592 00:30:34,333 --> 00:30:39,633 Iran, as every other country does, 593 00:30:39,633 --> 00:30:42,934 has a responsibility to protect the diplomatic missions present 594 00:30:42,934 --> 00:30:46,533 in its country, and the personnel stationed in them. 595 00:30:46,533 --> 00:30:50,833 I would also note that Iran has a responsibility to protect 596 00:30:50,834 --> 00:30:52,967 diplomatic personnel -- not just to protect them, 597 00:30:52,967 --> 00:30:54,300 but not to try to assassinate them, 598 00:30:54,300 --> 00:30:57,633 which was another issue that we dealt with not too long ago. 599 00:30:57,633 --> 00:31:00,600 So Iran's behavior outside of international norms is well 600 00:31:00,600 --> 00:31:07,833 established, and this is another item in the catalogue 601 00:31:07,834 --> 00:31:12,333 of particulars -- particular transgressions that the Iranian 602 00:31:12,333 --> 00:31:18,834 regime has perpetrated over the months and years. 603 00:31:18,834 --> 00:31:20,033 And we strongly condemn it. 604 00:31:20,033 --> 00:31:21,065 The Press: Very quick follow-up. 605 00:31:21,066 --> 00:31:23,633 You note the storming of the diplomatic offices, 606 00:31:23,633 --> 00:31:26,367 the embassy, but also the attempted assassination of 607 00:31:26,367 --> 00:31:27,700 the Saudi ambassador. 608 00:31:27,700 --> 00:31:30,100 Does that not suggest that sanctions, 609 00:31:30,100 --> 00:31:32,934 while they've hurt the Iranian economy, 610 00:31:32,934 --> 00:31:36,367 they have done nothing to stop Iran from operating 611 00:31:36,367 --> 00:31:37,800 outside international norms? 612 00:31:37,800 --> 00:31:42,667 Mr. Carney: Well, what we know, Ed, is that we have built an unprecedented 613 00:31:42,667 --> 00:31:45,934 international coalition behind the effort to isolate and 614 00:31:45,934 --> 00:31:48,533 pressure Iran; to get it to change its behavior; 615 00:31:48,533 --> 00:31:51,899 to prevent it from pursuing nuclear weapons. 616 00:31:51,900 --> 00:31:54,600 We have made, through that effort, 617 00:31:54,600 --> 00:31:58,899 the choice ever more starkly clear to the Iranian regime that 618 00:31:58,900 --> 00:32:02,200 faces them, which is further isolation, further pressure, 619 00:32:02,200 --> 00:32:08,367 further scorn in the eyes of the international community, 620 00:32:08,367 --> 00:32:10,734 or a decision to get right with the world, 621 00:32:10,734 --> 00:32:13,100 to live up to its international obligations 622 00:32:13,100 --> 00:32:15,632 and fulfill its responsibilities. 623 00:32:15,633 --> 00:32:19,033 We have recently, as you know, put forward even tighter 624 00:32:19,033 --> 00:32:23,000 sanctions on the Iranians -- so have other of our partners 625 00:32:23,000 --> 00:32:25,834 internationally -- and we will continue in that effort in a 626 00:32:25,834 --> 00:32:27,600 variety of means, not just through sanctions, 627 00:32:27,600 --> 00:32:30,166 to isolate and pressure Iran. 628 00:32:30,166 --> 00:32:34,567 The Press: Jay, the President is now in a TV ad, speaking to camera, 629 00:32:34,567 --> 00:32:37,266 saying the 2012 campaign has begun. 630 00:32:37,266 --> 00:32:39,800 And I know yesterday you guys were pushing back very hard on 631 00:32:39,800 --> 00:32:44,466 this concept of it just being a coincidence how many swing 632 00:32:44,467 --> 00:32:45,800 states the President has been. 633 00:32:45,800 --> 00:32:47,600 But tomorrow you're going to Scranton, Pennsylvania, 634 00:32:47,600 --> 00:32:48,833 a swing state. 635 00:32:48,834 --> 00:32:50,533 How is this not just a straight-up political trip? 636 00:32:50,533 --> 00:32:52,466 Mr. Carney: Well, you are an expert, there is no question, Chuck, 637 00:32:52,467 --> 00:32:53,266 on how this works. 638 00:32:53,266 --> 00:32:55,533 But we did win Pennsylvania by double digits. 639 00:32:55,533 --> 00:32:58,399 I suppose that it might be a swing state next year. 640 00:32:58,400 --> 00:33:00,667 You know more about this than I do. 641 00:33:00,667 --> 00:33:04,033 The point I made yesterday, which I think bears repeating, 642 00:33:04,033 --> 00:33:08,265 is that Virginia is 10 minutes away from the Oval Office. 643 00:33:08,266 --> 00:33:10,100 Every President, including this one, 644 00:33:10,100 --> 00:33:13,466 makes a lot of visits to Virginia to get out 645 00:33:13,467 --> 00:33:15,066 of Washington. 646 00:33:15,066 --> 00:33:16,233 This President has. 647 00:33:16,233 --> 00:33:20,466 Because he also happened to have won Virginia in 2008, 648 00:33:20,467 --> 00:33:22,734 it is now viewed as a battleground state. 649 00:33:25,000 --> 00:33:27,700 Every President ought to be able to travel everywhere 650 00:33:27,700 --> 00:33:29,133 in the country. 651 00:33:29,133 --> 00:33:32,200 It's part of his responsibility, serving the American people, 652 00:33:32,200 --> 00:33:36,133 to get out and be among them and to speak with them about 653 00:33:36,133 --> 00:33:37,667 his agenda or her agenda. 654 00:33:37,667 --> 00:33:39,433 This President will continue to do that. 655 00:33:39,433 --> 00:33:44,100 It is also true that we are moving forward in what will be 656 00:33:44,100 --> 00:33:45,332 a Presidential election year. 657 00:33:45,333 --> 00:33:50,734 And this President is running for reelection and fully intends 658 00:33:50,734 --> 00:33:55,500 to carry out his role as a candidate and to win reelection. 659 00:33:55,500 --> 00:33:59,266 And so that process is also underway. 660 00:33:59,266 --> 00:34:00,967 But it is a separate process. 661 00:34:00,967 --> 00:34:05,333 And at this point, because the President faces no primary 662 00:34:05,333 --> 00:34:09,867 challenger, and the President has enormous responsibilities 663 00:34:09,867 --> 00:34:14,033 as President to fulfill -- principally to do everything 664 00:34:14,033 --> 00:34:17,799 he can, both legislatively and using his executive authority to 665 00:34:17,800 --> 00:34:20,967 grow the economy and create jobs -- he is overwhelmingly focused 666 00:34:20,967 --> 00:34:22,533 on that task and not on campaigning. 667 00:34:22,533 --> 00:34:24,400 The Press: How much time is he focused on the campaign on a given day? 668 00:34:24,400 --> 00:34:26,333 Mr. Carney: On a given day? 669 00:34:26,333 --> 00:34:27,367 I can't do it on a given day. 670 00:34:27,367 --> 00:34:31,300 I would say on a given week about 5 percent of his time. 671 00:34:31,300 --> 00:34:32,934 The Press: Question about Pakistan? 672 00:34:32,934 --> 00:34:35,900 Mr. Carney: Let me get to Stephen, who's patiently -- 673 00:34:35,900 --> 00:34:38,734 The Press: What does the administration think about Russia's statement 674 00:34:38,734 --> 00:34:41,799 that it's time for an end to ultimatums to Syria? 675 00:34:41,800 --> 00:34:46,767 And it certainly seems like Russia is acting directly 676 00:34:46,766 --> 00:34:49,100 against the U.S. and Arab League bid to further 677 00:34:49,100 --> 00:34:51,866 isolate Damascus. 678 00:34:51,867 --> 00:34:55,133 Mr. Carney: Well, I would say a couple of things. 679 00:34:55,132 --> 00:35:01,700 One, as I noted yesterday, the chronology here, 680 00:35:03,767 --> 00:35:07,200 with regards to Syria, I think tells a very significant story 681 00:35:07,200 --> 00:35:14,933 about growing international consensus that the Assad regime 682 00:35:14,934 --> 00:35:20,734 has behaved reprehensively -- reprehensibly, rather. 683 00:35:20,734 --> 00:35:25,000 It has perpetrated gross violations of human rights 684 00:35:25,000 --> 00:35:26,000 against its own citizens. 685 00:35:26,000 --> 00:35:30,667 It has used excessive violence and force 686 00:35:30,667 --> 00:35:32,165 against its own citizens. 687 00:35:32,166 --> 00:35:35,667 There is broad international consensus around that idea, 688 00:35:35,667 --> 00:35:38,734 and that is why you see so much pressure being brought to bear, 689 00:35:38,734 --> 00:35:40,933 not just by the United States, not just by Western nations, 690 00:35:40,934 --> 00:35:44,333 but also by nations in the region. 691 00:35:44,333 --> 00:35:48,433 So I think that's an important point. 692 00:35:48,433 --> 00:35:53,567 We have an important relationship with Russia 693 00:35:53,567 --> 00:35:56,033 that encompasses a lot of issues. 694 00:35:56,033 --> 00:35:58,299 We don't agree with Russia on every issue, 695 00:35:58,300 --> 00:36:01,633 but we certainly have agreed on many and have made significant 696 00:36:01,633 --> 00:36:06,667 progress as a result of the agreement that we do have. 697 00:36:06,667 --> 00:36:10,667 The Press: Is there any concern that in recent weeks Russia has become 698 00:36:10,667 --> 00:36:14,165 -- perhaps since the transfer of power was kind of muted, 699 00:36:14,166 --> 00:36:15,867 seems to have become a little bit more hawkish on the 700 00:36:15,867 --> 00:36:18,033 international stage? 701 00:36:18,033 --> 00:36:23,734 Mr. Carney: Well, I would simply stand back and take note of the fact, 702 00:36:23,734 --> 00:36:29,467 with regard to Iran -- subject we were just discussing -- that 703 00:36:29,467 --> 00:36:34,433 in the bilateral meetings the President had with President 704 00:36:34,433 --> 00:36:40,533 Medvedev, there was no debate about Iran's behavior. 705 00:36:40,533 --> 00:36:43,100 There was no disagreement, rather, about Iran's behavior. 706 00:36:43,100 --> 00:36:47,066 And you noticed that in the wake of that, 707 00:36:47,066 --> 00:36:51,366 when there was a vote at the IAEA Board of Governors, 708 00:36:51,367 --> 00:36:55,266 that there was a great sweeping consensus in 709 00:36:55,266 --> 00:36:57,300 support of that vote. 710 00:36:57,300 --> 00:37:00,967 I think that, again, we have an important 711 00:37:00,967 --> 00:37:02,600 relationship with Russia. 712 00:37:02,600 --> 00:37:06,567 We have a number of issues that we agree on, 713 00:37:06,567 --> 00:37:08,467 and obviously we don't agree on everything. 714 00:37:08,467 --> 00:37:10,300 Jon-Christopher. The last one. 715 00:37:10,300 --> 00:37:14,333 The Press: Does the decision from Pakistan to skip the Afghan conference in 716 00:37:14,333 --> 00:37:17,266 Bonn, Germany, on December 5th trigger any concerns from this 717 00:37:17,266 --> 00:37:20,467 White House that Pakistan is withdrawing from all 718 00:37:20,467 --> 00:37:22,900 international efforts to stabilize the region in 719 00:37:22,900 --> 00:37:27,000 Afghanistan before and after the troop withdrawal on 2014? 720 00:37:27,000 --> 00:37:28,700 Mr. Carney: Well, I appreciate the question. 721 00:37:28,700 --> 00:37:31,799 We certainly urge Pakistan to participate in this conference. 722 00:37:31,800 --> 00:37:36,166 It's very important for the future of Afghanistan. 723 00:37:36,166 --> 00:37:39,133 Pakistan, obviously, will play an important role in the future 724 00:37:39,133 --> 00:37:41,767 of Afghanistan, and we urge them to participate 725 00:37:41,767 --> 00:37:42,767 in the conference. 726 00:37:42,767 --> 00:37:43,332 Thank you.