File:The self-fulfilling prophecy of journal prestige - fncom-06-00079-g002.jpeg

English: Journal prestige creates its own reality through two types of self-fulfilling prophecy. The first type (top) is a virtuous cycle, in which high prestige leads to high-quality submissions. As a result, the papers selected for publication are also of higher quality, which in turn contributes to journal prestige. This cycle is virtuous because it makes journal prestige a somewhat reliable signal. The second type of self-fulfilling prophecy (bottom) is a vicious cycle, in which high prestige leads to high attention being paid to papers (even those of lesser quality). This boosts their citation rate, which in turn contributes to journal prestige. This cycle is vicious because it compromises the reliability of journal prestige as an evaluative signal. In the current system, journal prestige is the only evaluative signal available for new papers, so it is widely relied upon by scientists, despite its limited reliability.