File:Probabilistic global temperature forecast and validation.webp

English: "a (left) Probabilistic forecast of the global temperature anomaly to 2100. The black curve represents the historical HadCRUT4 observations, while the red curve and the shaded area represent the forecast median, 90 and 95% prediction interval. Here anomaly stands for the difference between global mean temperature and the pre-industrial level, which is taken as the average global mean temperature between 1860 and 1880. b (right) Out of sample validation. The black line is the historical anomaly observed from the HadCRUT4 database for 1960–2005. The red curve is the forecasted median, and the dark and light shaded areas represents the 50% and 90% predictive intervals for 2006–2015. The blue curve is the observed anomaly in 2006–2015. The observations fall well within the predictive distribution."