File:Global monthly temperature record.png
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DescriptionGlobal monthly temperature record.png |
Bahasa Indonesia: Perkiraan suhu bulanan dunia (darat dan laut) dari delapan sumber berbeda |
Date | |
Source | Own work |
Author | Glen Fergus |
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Summary[edit]
The graph shows global monthly near-surface air temperature anomaly estimates since 1850 from eight sources spanning three different estimation approaches. The plotted values are temperature anomalies — the difference between a month’s temperature from a given series and the mean for that month of the year for that series across a reference interval, here taken as 1951 – 1980. The overlaid trend is a 4th order polynomial fit to the mean of the plotted series.
Data sources[edit]
Instrumental estimates[edit]
1. NASA GISTEMP global temperature series[1]
2. HadCRUT4 global temperature series[2]
3. HadCRUT + Cowtan & Way global temperature series (version 2)[3]
4. NOAA National Climate Data Center global temperature series[4]
5. Berkeley Earth land + ocean global temperature series[5]
Reanalysis estimates[edit]
6. NCEP / NCAR reanalysis (version 1) global average surface air temperatures[6][7]
Satellite estimates[edit]
Satellite MSU remote sensing cannot measure meteorological surface air temperature (typically defined as that at 2 m height). The best that can be obtained is a temperature estimate across the lower troposphere,[8] about the bottom 5000 m of atmosphere[8] That temperature is of course much colder than the surface temperature and varies somewhat differently with climatic influences. Nevertheless it is often compared with surface temperatures.[9] The satellite series do not extend across the reference interval adopted for the graph. Instead they are each rebased so that their mean across the 30 year interval 1979 – 2008 equals the mean of the five instrumental series across the same interval.
7. RSS temperature lower troposphere global temperature series (RSS TLT version 3.3)[10]
8. UAH temperature lower troposphere global temperature series (UAH TLT version 5.6)[11]
Future predictions[edit]
For comparison, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report[12] central temperature estimates for 2050 for representative concentration pathways RCP6 (mid range) and RCP8.5 (high) are also shown.
Open source[edit]
The Microsoft Excel spreadsheet that produced this graph can be downloaded here: http://gergs.net/?attachment_id=1246.
References[edit]
- ↑ NASA GISS Surface Temperature Analysis. Goddard Institute for Space Studies.
- ↑ Met Office Hadley Centre observations datasets HadCRUT4. UK Met Office.
- ↑ Cowtan, K., & Way, R. G. (2013). Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
- ↑ Global Surface Temperature Anomalies. National Climatic Data Center. Retrieved on 2010-06-16.
- ↑ Berkeley Earth Land + Ocean Data. Berkeley Earth.
- ↑ Kalnay et al.,The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 77, 437-470, 1996
- ↑ NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Monthly Means and Other Derived Variables. Earth Systems Research Laboratory.
- ↑ a b Upper Air Temperature. Remote Sensing Systems..
- ↑ For example File:Satellite Temperatures.png
- ↑ MSU & AMSU Time Series Trend Browse Tool. Remote Sensing Systems.
- ↑ UAH MSU Data.
- ↑ Climate Change 2013, The Physical Science Basis. Retrieved on 2013-05-03.
Also see[edit]
File history
Click on a date/time to view the file as it appeared at that time.
Date/Time | Thumbnail | Dimensions | User | Comment | |
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current | 11:49, 3 May 2014 | 1,065 × 640 (130 KB) | Gergyl (talk | contribs) | RCP6.0 rather than RCP4.5 | |
02:01, 28 April 2014 | 1,065 × 640 (130 KB) | Gergyl (talk | contribs) | Rev 7, align labels | ||
01:38, 28 April 2014 | 1,065 × 640 (130 KB) | Gergyl (talk | contribs) | + Berkeley Earth, IPCC AR5; font to liberation sans, for svg | ||
23:21, 16 November 2013 | 1,064 × 639 (150 KB) | Gergyl (talk | contribs) | Rev 5 | ||
08:10, 4 May 2011 | 1,066 × 619 (89 KB) | Glen Fergus (talk | contribs) | Update | ||
05:26, 14 September 2010 | 1,066 × 619 (88 KB) | Glen Fergus (talk | contribs) | Update; add NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. | ||
07:38, 15 April 2010 | 976 × 580 (80 KB) | Glen Fergus (talk | contribs) | {{Information |Description={{en|1=Global monthly land-ocean temperature estimates from five different sources.}} |Source={{own}} |Author=Glen Fergus |Date=2010-04-15 |Permission= |other_versions= }} |
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Horizontal resolution | 28.34 dpc |
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Vertical resolution | 28.34 dpc |