File:Vermeintlicher Stillstand der globalen Erwärmung.gif
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Vermeintlicher_Stillstand_der_globalen_Erwärmung.gif (509 × 370 pixels, file size: 319 KB, MIME type: image/gif, 38 frames, 18 s)
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Summary
[edit]DescriptionVermeintlicher Stillstand der globalen Erwärmung.gif |
Deutsch: Durch Selektieren bzw. Rosinenpicken von Daten scheint der Trend der globalen Erwärmung fälschlicherweise anzuhalten, wie im Zeitraum von 1998 bis 2012, was in Wirklichkeit eine zufällige entgegengesetzte Schwankung ist.
English: By selecting or cherry-picking data, the trend of global warming appears to mistakenly stop, as in the period from 1998 to 2012, which is actually a random contrary fluctuation. |
Date | |
Source | Own work |
Author | Physikinger |
Other versions | english version: File:Global_warming_hiatus.gif |
GIF development InfoField | This plot was created with Matplotlib. |
Source code InfoField | Python codeimport numpy
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import imageio
year_T = {
# https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
# GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius base period: 1951-1980
# sources: GHCN-v4 1880-07/2021 + SST: ERSST v5 1880-07/2021
# using elimination of outliers and homogeneity adjustment
# Divide by 100 to get changes in degrees Celsius (deg-C).
# Year J-D (annual mean Temperature Jan to Dec)
1880: -16, 1881: -8, 1882: -11, 1883: -17, 1884: -28,
1885: -33, 1886: -31, 1887: -36, 1888: -17, 1889: -10,
1890: -35, 1891: -22, 1892: -27, 1893: -31, 1894: -30,
1895: -22, 1896: -11, 1897: -11, 1898: -27, 1899: -17,
1900: -8, 1901: -15, 1902: -28, 1903: -37, 1904: -47,
1905: -26, 1906: -22, 1907: -38, 1908: -43, 1909: -48,
1910: -43, 1911: -44, 1912: -36, 1913: -34, 1914: -15,
1915: -14, 1916: -36, 1917: -46, 1918: -30, 1919: -28,
1920: -27, 1921: -19, 1922: -29, 1923: -27, 1924: -27,
1925: -22, 1926: -11, 1927: -22, 1928: -20, 1929: -36,
1930: -16, 1931: -9, 1932: -16, 1933: -29, 1934: -13,
1935: -20, 1936: -15, 1937: -3, 1938: 0, 1939: -2,
1940: 13, 1941: 19, 1942: 7, 1943: 9, 1944: 20,
1945: 9, 1946: -7, 1947: -3, 1948: -11, 1949: -11,
1950: -17, 1951: -7, 1952: 1, 1953: 8, 1954: -13,
1955: -14, 1956: -19, 1957: 5, 1958: 6, 1959: 3,
1960: -3, 1961: 6, 1962: 3, 1963: 5, 1964: -20,
1965: -11, 1966: -6, 1967: -2, 1968: -8, 1969: 5,
1970: 3, 1971: -8, 1972: 1, 1973: 16, 1974: -7,
1975: -1, 1976: -10, 1977: 18, 1978: 7, 1979: 16,
1980: 26, 1981: 32, 1982: 14, 1983: 31, 1984: 16,
1985: 12, 1986: 18, 1987: 32, 1988: 39, 1989: 27,
1990: 45, 1991: 40, 1992: 22, 1993: 23, 1994: 31,
1995: 45, 1996: 33, 1997: 46, 1998: 61, 1999: 38,
2000: 39, 2001: 53, 2002: 63, 2003: 62, 2004: 53,
2005: 67, 2006: 63, 2007: 66, 2008: 54, 2009: 65,
2010: 72, 2011: 61, 2012: 65, 2013: 67, 2014: 74,
2015: 90, 2016: 101, 2017: 92, 2018: 85, 2019: 97,
2020: 102, 2021: 85, 2022: 89, 2023: 117
}
x, y = (numpy.array(list(x()), dtype='d') for x in (year_T.keys, year_T.values))
y = y / 100
xMinFocus, xMaxFocus = 1998, 2012
i0 = x.tolist().index(xMinFocus)
i1 = x.tolist().index(xMaxFocus) + 1
nPoly = 4
phi = numpy.array([x**i for i in range(nPoly)])
A = phi @ phi.T
b = phi @ y
c = numpy.linalg.solve(A, b)
yPoly = c @ phi
phiHist = phi[:,:i1]
A = phiHist @ phiHist.T
b = phiHist @ y[:i1]
c = numpy.linalg.solve(A, b)
yPolyHist = c @ phi
nPoly = 3
phiF = phi[:nPoly,i0:i1]
A = phiF @ phiF.T
b = phiF @ y[i0:i1]
c = numpy.linalg.solve(A, b)
yPolyFocus = c @ phi[:nPoly]
yMinTotal, yMaxTotal = numpy.min(y) - 0.02, numpy.max(y) + 0.02
xMinTotal, xMaxTotal = numpy.min(x), numpy.max(x)
yMinFocus, yMaxFocus = numpy.min(y[i0:i1]) - 0.02, numpy.max(y[i0:i1]) + 0.02
plt.xlim(xMinFocus-0.1, xMaxFocus+0.5)
# Frame-Parameter:
# t: Frame-Dauer
# trans1: Übergang 0 bis 1 vom Zoom bis zum vollen Zeitraum
# trans2: Übergang 0 bis 1 vom reduzierten bis zum vollen Datensatz
# showTrend: Trend (0: None, 1: Ausschnitt, 2: gesamte Historie, 3: gesamter Zeitraum)
parameters = [ # (t, trans1, trans2, showTrend)
(1, 0.0, 0.0, 0),
(4, 0.0, 0.0, 1),
*[(0.1, t**2, 0.0, 1) for t in numpy.linspace(0,1,25)],
(1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1),
(0.5, 1.0, 0.0, 0),
(1, 1.0, 0.0, 2),
*[(0.1, 1.0, t,2) for t in numpy.linspace(0,1,10)],
(0.5, 1.0, 1.0, 2),
(6, 1.0, 1.0, 3),
]
images = []
duration = []
for t, trans1, trans2, showTrend in parameters:
duration.append(t)
zoom = 4*(1-trans1) + 1*trans1
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(5.1,3.7), dpi=100)
plt.rc('axes', titlesize=14, labelsize=12)
plt.rc('xtick', labelsize=11)
plt.rc('ytick', labelsize=11)
plt.rc('legend', fontsize=16)
if showTrend == 1: plt.plot(x[i0-15:], yPolyFocus[i0-15:], 'r--', label='Trend')
if showTrend == 2: plt.plot(x, yPolyHist, 'b--', label='Trend')
if showTrend == 3: plt.plot(x, yPoly, 'b--', label='Trend')
iMax = int(i1 + trans2*(len(x)-i1))
plt.plot(x[:iMax], y[:iMax], 'C0.-', alpha=0.8, linewidth=0.8*zoom, markersize=6*zoom)
plt.plot(x[i0:i1], y[i0:i1], 'C3.-', linewidth=0.805*zoom, markersize=6.05*zoom)
plt.grid(True, alpha=0.7)
yMax = yMaxFocus + trans1*(yMaxTotal-yMaxFocus)
xMax = xMaxFocus + trans1*(xMaxTotal-xMaxFocus)
xMin = xMinFocus*(1-trans1) + xMinTotal*trans1
plt.xlim(xMin-0.1, xMax+0.1+1*trans1)
plt.ylim(yMinFocus*(1-trans1) + yMinTotal*trans1, yMaxFocus*(1-trans1) + yMax*trans1+0.03*trans1)
plt.text(0.02, 0.89, '%i - %i'%(xMin, x[iMax-1]), transform=plt.gca().transAxes, fontsize=20)
plt.title('Vermeintlicher Stillstand der Erwärmung')
plt.xlabel('Jahr')
plt.ylabel('Relative globale Temperatur (°C)')
plt.gca().yaxis.set_label_coords(-0.13, 0.5)
if showTrend: leg = plt.legend(frameon=False, loc='lower right')
fig.subplots_adjust(
top=0.9,
bottom=0.13,
left=0.15,
right=0.95,
hspace=0.2,
wspace=0.2
)
fig.canvas.draw()
s, (width, height) = fig.canvas.print_to_buffer()
images.append(numpy.array(list(s), numpy.uint8).reshape((height, width, 4)))
fig.clf()
plt.close('all')
# Save GIF animation
fileOut = 'Vermeintlicher_Stillstand_der_globalen_Erwaermung.gif'
imageio.mimsave(fileOut, images, 'GIF', duration=[i*1000 for i in duration])
# Optimize GIF size
from pygifsicle import optimize
optimize(fileOut, colors=20)
|
Licensing
[edit]I, the copyright holder of this work, hereby publish it under the following license:
This file is made available under the Creative Commons CC0 1.0 Universal Public Domain Dedication. | |
The person who associated a work with this deed has dedicated the work to the public domain by waiving all of their rights to the work worldwide under copyright law, including all related and neighboring rights, to the extent allowed by law. You can copy, modify, distribute and perform the work, even for commercial purposes, all without asking permission.
http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/deed.enCC0Creative Commons Zero, Public Domain Dedicationfalsefalse |
File history
Click on a date/time to view the file as it appeared at that time.
Date/Time | Thumbnail | Dimensions | User | Comment | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
current | 21:31, 8 July 2024 | 509 × 370 (319 KB) | Physikinger (talk | contribs) | Typo | |
22:10, 30 January 2024 | 509 × 370 (541 KB) | Physikinger (talk | contribs) | Update 2023 | ||
20:47, 17 April 2023 | 509 × 370 (533 KB) | Physikinger (talk | contribs) | Shorter red line | ||
18:32, 13 April 2023 | 509 × 370 (532 KB) | Physikinger (talk | contribs) | Extrapolation, Timing | ||
20:54, 12 April 2023 | 509 × 370 (523 KB) | Physikinger (talk | contribs) | Update 2022, single zoom transition | ||
12:45, 7 September 2021 | 509 × 370 (518 KB) | Physikinger (talk | contribs) | Remove additional frame | ||
12:35, 7 September 2021 | 509 × 370 (532 KB) | Physikinger (talk | contribs) | Smaller file size | ||
22:05, 6 September 2021 | 509 × 370 (643 KB) | Physikinger (talk | contribs) | Fixed label, less colors | ||
20:40, 31 August 2021 | 509 × 370 (892 KB) | Physikinger (talk | contribs) | Larger font | ||
14:30, 28 August 2021 | 509 × 370 (856 KB) | Physikinger (talk | contribs) | Uploaded own work with UploadWizard |
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