File:Projections of the demand for national forest stumpage by region, 1980-2030 (1981) (20564835082).jpg

Title: Projections of the demand for national forest stumpage by region, 1980-2030
Identifier: CAT92272923 (find matches)
Year: 1981 (1980s)
Authors: Haynes, Richard W. cn; Connaughton, Kent P. cn; Adams, Darius Mainard, 1944- dn; Pacific Northwest Forest and Range Experiment Station (Portland, Or. ) cn
Subjects: Forests and forestry Economic aspects United States; Forest products United States
Publisher: Portland, Or. : Pacific Northwest Forest and Range Experiment Station, U. S. Dept. of Agriculture, Forest Service
Contributing Library: U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Library
Digitizing Sponsor: U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Library

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Introduction
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The National Forest Management Act (NFMA) (U.S. Laws, Statutes, etc. 1976) has lead to significant changes in National Forest planning. Some of the most important changes deal with economic concepts in planning. The regulations issued pursuant to the act specifically state that "projections of demand ..., in conjunction with the supply cost infor- mation will be used to evaluate the level of goods and services that maximizes net public benefits; to the extent possible demand will be assessed as a price-quantity relation- ship (USDA Forest Service 1979)." This last statement has led to speculation about the nature of demand functions at both the National Forest and regional level—particularly how demand functions might be defined in ways that are consistent with both economic theory and the projections of forest products markets made to meet requirements of both the Renew- able Resources Planning Act (RPA) (U.S. Laws, Statutes, etc. 1974) and the NFMA. The purpose of this paper is to provide demand relationships for National Forest timber for each Forest Service Region (fig. 1A). These relationships can be used in planning at Forest Service regional and national levels. They are based on projections of softwood stumpage price and quantity that were made for each geographical region (fig. 1B) for the 1980 RPA effort (USDA Forest Service 1980a). Forest Service Administrative Regions are hereafter capitalized. The geographic regions used in RPA planning are not. This paper deals only with regional demand for National Forest timber. It is written for National Forest planners and others interested in the planning process. Resource analysts and others interested in the effect on price of harvest levels on the National Forests may also find this information useful. Since regional harvest levels are likely to affect local prices, our results have implications for planning on individual National Forests. These implications, however, are not yet significantly developed and are only briefly discussed in this report. Figure 1A.—USDA Forest Service Administrative Regions excluding Alaska. Figure 1B.—The 1980 Renewable Resources Planning Act (RPA) regions. Alaska is excluded in the analysis and Hawaii is added to the Pacific Southwest. We view demand as the relationship between price and the maximum quantity of a good or service that buyers are willing to purchase. The demand for stumpage is derived from the demand for wood products. We further derive the demand of a region for stumpage on the National Forests from the demand for stumpage on all ownerships. Our approach is the same as that used in the Roadless Area — Intensive Management Tradeoff Study (Fight et al. 1978) to simulate the impacts of withdrawals of roadless areas on prices in a region. The demand curves and projections are fully consistent with the 1980 RPA assessment (USDA Forest Service 1980b) of the Nation's timber resource, and with the high bound recom- mended RPA program for the 1980's. The paper is organized into three parts: (1) a discussion of the concept of regional demand and how it applies to stumpage on the National Forests, (2) projections of the demand curves, and (3) an interpretation of the results. The first section is prefaced by a review of the concepts of demand, supply, market price, and price elasticity. Examples are presented to illustrate the demand curves devel- oped in the second part. The implications for planning on individual National Forests are discussed in the third part. 1

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