File:Estimated distribution of economic damages due to climate-driven sea-level rise across European regions.webp

English: "Relative change (%) in regional (NUTS2 level) GDP in 2100 due to SLR under the SSP5-RCP8.5 scenario. The percentage change is computed relative to a baseline scenario assuming a yearly 2% growth in GDP for all regions. Regions coloured in green increase their GDP by up to 2.36% (Basilicata, ITF5) relative to the baseline, while those coloured in yellow, orange and red lose up to 20.84% (Veneto, ITH3)." "As expected, the majority of the GDP losses are concentrated in coastal regions (Fig. 2), where sectoral capital stocks are damaged directly. Most losses lay between 0.5 and 10% of regional GDP, while the largest losses can reach almost 21% (Table 1). Conversely, inland regions face moderate gains (0–1.13%). In the model this is driven by the increased demand for traded goods from coastal regions that cannot be matched by the impaired regional production. An interesting exception occurs in the south of Italy (see the top winners, Table 1), where coastal regions experience significant GDP gains. This is driven by the huge losses in productive coastal regions in the north of Italy. That shifts economic demand and triggers higher supply in the historically less industrialised South, which although still damaged by SLR, is much less affected in relative terms than the North. This finding is consistent with previous multi-regional CGE approaches assessing flooding impacts29. Other highly exposed regions are concentrated around the Baltic Sea, the coast of Belgium, western France and Greece. However, inland regions in Germany, as well as fully land-locked nations like Austria or Hungary, incur net gains from the effects of SLR, as substitution effects in the factors of production from the coast boost their economies. It is worth noting that the German economy sees overall marginal GDP gains (0.03%) by 2100 (Fig. 1), as its inland industrial core is capable of compensating the losses of up to 4% in some of its coastal regions."